Night report: Analyst Nate Silver raises Obama’s chances for Electoral College victory to 80-plus percent

Polling analyst Nate Silver of The New York Times projected tonight that Barack Obama’s chances of re-election now stand at 80.8 percent, the highest level since the president’s decline in the polls after his listless performance in the first of his debates with Mitt Romney four weeks ago.

As recently as Oct. 14, Silver had Obama’s chances at 61.1 percent.

Silver also projected that Obama will garner 303 electoral votes, 33 more than the 270 needed to win.

It should be noted that these numbers are not a prediction. Rather, they are current projections based on a study of virtually all the polls in the various states. The numbers can, and likely will, change between now and Election Day.



  1. Our eastern coast has just been devistated by a hurricane . The red cross sure could use all the money they can get . The POTUS has been offered 5 million to any charity he wants from Donald Trump the release his colledge records and passport . The MSM has ignored this story and made fun of Trump , but has refused to ask why are his records sealed up ? What could he be hidding ? It’s 5 million ! That sure could help alot of people .

  2. michael dice

    As I wrote before, I would rather that Mr. Trump offer Gov Romney the cash for the opening of his tax records for the last 10 years. They would be more interesting and more informative than how POTUS did in English 101 30 years ago

  3. I don’t care how he did in English , I think there is something in those documents that will verify he is not eligible to be president . Prove me wrong ! I think he changed his citizen status years ago to get aid as a foreign student . You cannot be a duel citizen and be eligible for the POTUS . Prove me wrong ! There is no legal requirment to show tax records but Romney has shown what was asked of him . We do have the I R S and I am sure they went through his records completely . So lets see Obama’s passport and colledge records .

  4. Tracey Fisher

    @Brian: When is that poor dead horse gonna stop being beat? For gods sake, has it even crossed your mind that Obama had to be vetted by FBI, CIA, IRS, and Secret Service…? If there was a problem with his citizenship, it would have been found. That is what those people are taught to do…follow suspicious trails, identify false paperwork..
    Perhaps he is simply sick and tired of trying to defend himself from people who will never be happy with what he shows? Or if he does show it, they will criticize like they did his birth certificate (I can hear it now “that aint what a transcript looks like!!”) He has drawn his line in the sand and said “I’m done with this crap!”. This stuff has dogged him for 4 years…and when he has complied, everyone said it was fake. I say…good for him. No one needs to see his school records. No other president had to show that stuff. Bush didn’t have to show his Texas Air reserve records (which, I believe, rumors said he was awol often? ) But there was no outcry…
    Find something to be truly upset about.

  5. Tracey,

    You mean the rumors about Bush that cost Dan Rather his job and his reputation?


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *