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Princeton analyst: If state polls are correct, Obama wins

(NOTE: In light of the heavy crush of poll results in these waning days of the presidential campaign, I’m dispensing with our regular Daily Poll Watch for the duration. It makes more sense to report pertinent poll numbers in separate blog posts rather than continually attach them as updates to one DPW post where they may not get the attention they deserve.)

Sam Wang (above), the chief polling analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium, PUNCHES HOLES this morning in Republican partisan Karl Rove’s contention that Mitt Romney is riding a wave of momentum:

In the Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove surprises basically nobody by predicting a Romney win. His reason? He cites a Romney lead in some national polls. This has become a rallying cry for the right. But is “the math” correct?

Here at the Princeton Election Consortium, the Meta-Analysis of state polls points toward an Obama electoral victory. The median outcome is Obama 308, Romney 230 EV [electoral votes], with a Meta-Margin of Obama +2.4%+/-0.5%. To put it into plain English: If state polls are accurate on the whole, then Obama will win.

As for the differences in national polls and the aggregate of state polls, Wang says this:

Even if national and state polls have the same flaws, they are consistent with one another. Because state poll aggregation is so powerful, the result based on state polls is likely to be more accurate. That is what I would call The Math.

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1 Comment

  1. Even if the national and state polls have the same flaws as Wang suggests, there is absolutely no way Obama wins over 300 EV with Romney consistently ahead by about 2 points in the national polls, Obama’s unfavorable numbers around 47%, and independents largely breaking for Romney.

    I’m not saying Obama’s going to lose, but to get over 300 he’ll essentially have to sweep all the toss up states. That ain’t happenin’.

    This election will be close either way. So close that we might not even know the winner a week from now.

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