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Sometimes in a political race where nobody has a clear sense of where things stand, a poll will come out that just makes everybody say: “Whoa, okay, I get it.” That’s pretty much what happened today in Indiana, when the respected bipartisan Howey/DePaus poll showed Democrat Joe Donnelly holding a double-digit lead over Republican Treasurer Richard Mourdock [above]. Poll internals indicated Mourdock’s favorability ratings have just collapsed in the wake of his remarks in an October 23 poll that it was God’s Will that women carry to term pregnancies caused by rape.
If this is at all accurate, the math for the once-thought-to-be-certain Republican takeover of the United States Senate becomes really improbable. Down three seats going in, Republicans would be down five with the loss of Indiana and the equally likely loss of Maine. Many analysts think Missouri’s gone, too. So that would make Republicans down six with eight other races considered tossups. Anybody want to bet the GOP wins seven of those eight?