HuffPo sees Obama as likely to carry eight swing states

Regarding the Huffington Post chart above, there’s THIS:

Given the torrent of incoming data, the model now reports nearly complete certainty about Obama’s narrow leads in the most crucial tipping-point states of Iowa and Ohio, but that statistical confidence assumes that the final polls are collectively accurate and unbiased. When we factor in the historical potential for polling error, the probability of an Obama win falls to roughly 90 percent in Ohio and Iowa. An Obama win in those states is thus still very likely, but a 1-in-10 possibility still exists, given the typical historical pattern, that the polls could be wrong enough for Romney to win.

The polling snapshot in Florida, a state that Romney must carry to win, is far less clear. A new Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research shows Romney leading by 6 percentage points (51 to 45 percent), while a new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll gives Obama a nominal 2-point edge (49 to 47 percent). Altogether, five surveys released in Florida in the last week have given a slight edge to Obama, including two conducted by Democratic pollsters sponsored by groups supporting Obama, while three have favored Romney and one showed an exact tie.



  1. If Obama loses this election, you can blame/thank the Right for bamboozling him. How is it ethical that an entire news network questions the President’s citizenship for four years to create doubt in voters while a fringe element of the far right demonizes and degrades him? Most of this is financed by the rich who want to keep their stranglehold on the flow of wealth in our country. Watch the white hands apply the Blackface to our first African-American President at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2012/10/bamboozling-obama.html

  2. I wonder how Brandt can get away with pushing that new “confirm you are NOT a spammer” button?

  3. Brandt ,Obama did it to himself . When tha accusations came up he waited 3 years before addressing them . Then what he did show was proven to be photo shopped and a poor forgery by law enforcement official from Arizona , but the media ignored it . When you look up his SSN it was registered to a deceased woman from Conneticut . When Trump offered 5 million to any charity to see his passport and college records he blew it off and the media made jokes about Trumps hair , But nobody asked why did he turn down 5 million when the red cross sure could use it for the people on the east coast ? His own biography from his book says he was born in Kenya , and it said it for years . The list goes on and on . Too many unanswered questions about this guy .

  4. Makes all sense to me. Thank you very much for the article. No matter what, I will always stand firm. Forever a democrat. 🙂

  5. The election had been a pretty close fight. I hope Obama will be able to make good changes these coming years. We really need the change and I hope all of us will experience them soon.

  6. A tight poll reveals something positive. This proves that the country is proceeding the right way. I expect the same achievement for Obama. I wish he will eventually prove himself as one of the successful presidents of the United States of America.

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