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Two conservative pundits stick their necks waaaay out and predict an electoral landslide for Romney

 

It’s one thing to say that Mitt Romney will eke out a victory in Tuesday’s presidential election. Most political observers have not flatly ruled out that possibility, although polling analysts generally suggest, at this writing on Saturday morning, that it’s not likely to happen.

It’s something else entirely to contend that Romney will achieve a landslide victory in the Electoral College. Oh sure, you may hear theories to that effect from fevered partisans calling right-wing radio talk shows or from the guy on the bar stool next to yours. But rare is the professional political pundit who expects the Republican ticket to enjoy a big electoral tsunami.

Ah, but two such specimens have emerged in recent days — Dick Morris of Fox News fame and Michael Barone, who is best known as the principal author of “The Almanac of American Politics.”

The ARGUMENT from Morris, which was published this past Wednesday, is fundamentally at odds with what the polls have been saying in the various states in recent weeks.

His [Obama's] erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).

Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.

And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.

In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.

Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?

Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.

Morris puts no specific number of electoral votes on this “landslide” he anticipates, but Barone does.

Writing in the right-wing Washington Examiner, where he’s the senior political analyst, Barone SAYS Romney will win by 45 more electoral votes than he needs, a veritable landslide:

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them…

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney [will win].

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target…

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate…

Ohio (18)…In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again…

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney…

Colorado (9)…The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time…

Iowa (6)…Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined…

New Hampshire (4)…I think superior Republican intensity will prevail…

Pennsylvania (20)…[H]igher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise…

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Romney [will win]…

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223.

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2 Comments

  1. Oh ye of little faith…

    I recall the 1980 election very well. I was nervous the week before the election, because Reagan was behind in the polls and Carter seemed to be finally firing on all cylinders.

    Actual results: Reagan 489 electoral votes, Carter 49. Polling science has improved a lot since then, and the electorate has become more polarized and predictable, so I doubt Romney will triumph so mightily in 2012. But his victory seems almost certain to me, unless they discover that he’s secretly a Martian or something.

    But honestly, Pat, I’ve been listening to Obama’s recent speeches and his campaign is running on fumes. All he says is that Romney wants to return us to the failed policies of the past (which is quite inaccurate). He offers no new ideas, just endless platitudes about creating jobs and investing ( = “spending”) in America and making sure the rich pay their fair share. (Richest 10% of taxpayers currently pay 70% of all taxes. Bottom 50% pays less than 3%.)

    The Obama campaign is almost out of money, and the GOP is dropping the advertising equivalent of a nuclear bomb in the last 5 days of the campaign. Dick Morris is a motormouth who has made wildly optimistic predictions favorable to the GOP. But Barone is in a league of his own, one of the true giants in the polling world. Ignore him at your peril.

  2. Dick M orris and Michael Barone are simply carnival barkers and repulsive bigots. I have no doubt that they will live up to their reputations as clowns on Nov 6th. The problem I have is that our society no longer holds idiots like them accountable any more. There is no shame and therefore these 2 cowards will continue to spew their garbage in the public domain without having to publicly admit they were wrong.

    I would love to see some consequences for both of these trolls, why not have Morris put on his dog collar and suck Morris’ toes. Actually, that would be reward for Morris, lol

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