Final NBC/WSJ national poll has Obama up by one point

Except to the extent that it shows no surge one way or the other, THIS POLL is of little significance.

It says President Obama is ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent.

But national polls are relatively unimportant. This is a state-by-state election, not a national referendum. All that matters at this point is which candidate is more likely to accumulate at least 270 electoral votes from the various states.

But the NBC/WSJ poll reflects one interesting coincidence. The 48-47 margin is exactly the same one in which the final pre-election poll of 2004 showed George W. Bush leading John Kerry. When all the electoral votes were counted, Bush won, 286-251.




  1. doc: But I doubt that it’s going to swing Wisconsin to Romney.

    I would dare say that Obama’s appearance tomorrow with Bruce Springsteen in downtown Madison will have a bigger impact than the State Journal’s endorsement.

    As one who spent more than 40 years in the newspaper biz, I can tell you that the influence of editorial endorsements has greatly waned over the years — along, of course, with circulation figures.

    The Madison’s paper’s endorsement likely will be only a little more influential in Wisconsin than the Salt Lake Tribune’s endorsement of Obama will be in Utah.

  2. Craig Knauss

    doc, The newspaper where I live now also endorsed Romney. Will it matter in this area. Not a bit, because at least 2/3 of the voters will vote for the Republican nominee no matter who it is. However, their explanation was interesting. It was basically “We endorse Romney in 2012 because Obama, who we endorsed in 2008, failed to fix the mess left by Bush, who we endorsed in 2000 and 2004.” They used a much more contorted and lengthy explanation, but that’s what it boiled down to. It had to be one of the most lame endorsements I’ve ever seen!

  3. Craig: The lamest editorial endorsement by far is the one for Romney in the Des Moines Register. Lawrence O’Donnell delivered an absolutely devastating commentary on it the other night. It wasn’t simply that he disagreed with the paper’s choice. Rather, he showed how weakly it was rationalized and how it contradicted so many other things the paper has said in endorsements over the years.

  4. I am only shocked by the Wisconsin State Journal endorsement because it is the only print paper in circulation in one of the most liberal cities in the Midwest. Having spent the first 25 years of my life there it is amazing to me. It won’t sway the vote in Madtown, but it will certainly irritate the natives.

    By the way, Romney just got the benefit of the powerful Redskin’s effect.

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