Much as I hate to do it (heh, heh), I guess I’m going to have to bring up this point again

In a post HERE the other day, I said this:

Polls get a better reading on the outcome of presidential elections when they ask people which candidate they expect to win rather than just which candidate they want to win.

In the last four elections, Gallup got amazingly accurate predictions of the popular-vote winners by asking this question about people’s expectations.

Well, guess what!

Two polls released today show that a majority of voters expect President Obama to win re-election.

The report on the latest Battleground Tracking Poll put it THIS WAY:

Obama continues to be perceived as the frontrunner. Regardless of who they’re supporting, 53 percent of voters say they believe the nation’s first African-American president will win a second term. Historically, this question offers a good predictor of who winds up the victor.

The Pew Research Center’s final national poll SHOWS similar sentiments and even indicates that about one in every six Romney supporters expect Obama to win.


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