Nate Silver’s Election Eve forecast: Obama a 91-percent favorite to defeat Romney

Nathaniel Read Silver (above), the 34-year-old celebrated and controversial polling analyst for The New York Times, SAID tonight that President Obama has better than nine chances in 10 to win re-election tomorrow over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

(Silver’s forecast is on the right side of his FiveThirtyEight Web site.)

Silver estimated that Obama will garner 315 electoral votes and pegged him as an 85-percent favorite to carry the all-important swing state of Ohio. Among the other so-called battleground states, he also rates the president as at least an 80-percent favorite in Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Four years ago, Silver correctly predicted the winning candidate in 49 out of 50 states. He was wrong only in Indiana, which he said would go to John McCain. Obama won it by one percentage point.



  1. Nate Silver? The same guy who predicted with high certainty that Martha Coakley would win the special election in Massachusetts against Scott Brown in 2010? You’re killing me!

    Although in fairness, Silver did change his tune at the very last moment and say that Brown had a chance. (Brown won 52% to 47%.)

    Never trust a skinny chef. And Silver wrote a book called “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t.”

  2. Dan: Do you ever get tired of lying?

    Nate Silver’s final projection in the Coakley-Brown race pegged Brown as “a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts.”

    But then, you’re also the guy who just yesterday recklessly misquoted Silver as saying that “the polls can’t be off-track.” He never said any such thing. Nor has any other polling analyst ever said any such thing. You just sit there in your little wingnut world and make stuff up, don’t you?

    The fact remains that Silver’s record of accuracy in the 2008 presidential election was without parallel. Nobody else correctly called 49 out of 50 states. (Nor was the only one he got wrong a case of liberal bias. He expected John McCain to carry Indiana, which didn’t happen.)

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