Nate Silver’s Election Eve forecast: Obama a 91-percent favorite to defeat Romney
Nathaniel Read Silver (above), the 34-year-old celebrated and controversial polling analyst for The New York Times, SAID tonight that President Obama has better than nine chances in 10 to win re-election tomorrow over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
(Silver’s forecast is on the right side of his FiveThirtyEight Web site.)
Silver estimated that Obama will garner 315 electoral votes and pegged him as an 85-percent favorite to carry the all-important swing state of Ohio. Among the other so-called battleground states, he also rates the president as at least an 80-percent favorite in Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Four years ago, Silver correctly predicted the winning candidate in 49 out of 50 states. He was wrong only in Indiana, which he said would go to John McCain. Obama won it by one percentage point.