Analyst Sam Wang’s final projection: Obama has virtually a mortal lock on victory
Neuroscientist Samuel Sheng-Hung Wang (above), a 45-year-old polling analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium SEES a whopping 99-percent likelihood that Barack Obama will win re-election with between 303 and 332 electoral votes.
Wang also says Florida and North Carolina are close calls.
In the 2008 presidential election, Wang predicted that Obama would win 364 electoral votes. He got 365.
Meanwhile, Drew Linzer, a political science professor at Emory and Standford universities, PREDICTS today that Obama will win 332 electoral votes, but he also affords himself a little wiggle room, one way or the other:
With the last set of polls factored into the model, my final prediction is Obama to win 332 electoral votes, with 206 for Romney. This is both the median and the modal outcome in my electoral vote simulation, and corresponds to Obama winning all of his 2008 states except Indiana and North Carolina.
The four closest states – and therefore the most difficult to predict – are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado. Of these, my model only expects Romney to win North Carolina; but Florida is a true toss-up, with just a 60% chance of Obama victory. I would not be surprised if Florida ended up going for Romney. If that happens, Obama would win 303 electoral votes, which is the second-most likely scenario in my simulation. The third-most likely scenario is that Obama wins 347 electoral votes, picking up North Carolina in addition to Florida.