Republicans who argue that the two elections in which Barack Obama won the presidency were just flukes are fooling themselves more than anyone else.
The GOP’s problems in the Electoral College go back 20 years, despite George W. Bush’s two narrow victories, and seem likely to continue.
Chris Cillizza EXPLAINS:
Amid all of the agita and hand-wringing about the campaign Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney ran, the reality is that the former Massachusetts governor was operating on an incredibly narrow electoral map that made his only path to victory something close to a total sweep of the most closely contested states. That problem isn’t unique to Romney and, along with the party’s demographic disadvantages, is the biggest issue facing Republicans as the party tries to regroup for 2016, 2020 and beyond.
Let’s start with an examination of the electoral math.
In the past six presidential elections, including 2012, the Democratic nominee has averaged 327 electoral votes while the Republican nominee has averaged just 210. (A candidate needs 270…
During those two-plus decades dating back to 1992, the most — repeat most — electoral votes a Republican presidential candidate has won is 286, when George W. Bush claimed a second term in 2004. In that same time frame, Democratic nominees have received more than 300 electoral votes four times…
For Republicans, changing their coalition from one built around older, whiter voters to one with more Hispanic (and female) faces goes hand in hand with solving their electoral map problem. But make no mistake: No matter who Republicans nominate in 2016, he/she will almost certainly be faced with the same dauntingly narrow path to 270 electoral votes that Romney came up against on Election Day.