Whom do you think will be the Republican nominee in 2016?


What I’m looking for here is not just your answer to the question above but also your argument in support of the answer.

Your guess need not be based on your personal preference. And, of course, you should bear in mind that any candidate for the nomination will have to navigate the party’s tricky  cross-currents to get the nod.

Oh, and you needn’t venture a guess as to whether the GOP nominee is likely to win the general election.



  1. We all know Pat, it’s a no-brainer.

  2. Neftali

    Chris Christie – Yes, he’s hated by the far right just because of a few photo ops with the President and because he called out Boehner on some emergency spending which wasn’t even 1/2 of 1% of the budget. But Christie has the highest approval rating of any Republican in the country. Its only 2013, plenty of time for the party leaders to build up a support network for him.

    Once the actual campaign starts, and the loonies of the far right begin to actually look at Christie’s actual record, they will see he’s as Conservative as any other candidate out there.

    I’m actually more interested in who the Democratic nominee will be. I still say Hillary doesn’t run. If Biden is the nominee, can you imagine the debates between Christie and Biden?

  3. Neftali

    Steverino – If its such a no-brainer, why don’t you bless us with your enlightened opinion?

  4. Steverino: It is anything but a no-brainer.

    I can make an argument against the likelihood of any Republican winning the nomination. Every single one of the potential candidates faces daunting obstacles.

    We’re talking about a party rent by factionalism — more so than at any previous time in memory. Consequently, the battle for the 2016 nomination is going to be a nasty affair.

  5. Let me put it another way. Most of the GOP candidates are no-brainers.

  6. Bush/Pataki

  7. Rick Santorum

    I eliminate Rubio and Jeb Bush. Rubio is a lightweight, Bush is a Bush, and I think the Republican primary voters are not moving to the center, despite the efforts of the leadership.

    Rand Paul I eliminate because libertarianism is popular — until voters actually hear a libertarian speak about issues. He’ll get loving crowds, popular support from the young and only token votes in the primaries. We are not a libertarian nation.

    Paul Ryan — he is unlikable, and too wonky. His hair is weird and childish.

    Social conservatives have not moved to another country; they are still a force in the party. Santorum will appeal to them. Santorum has been through the process before and knows how to organize. Santorum was the runner up in 2012, and that is who the Republicans almost always pick.

    Chris Christie, I admit, is harder for me to eliminate. That is the man who could ruin my prediction, but I am betting on Santorum.

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