Two pollsters, one from each party, say public opinion won’t likely turn against Obama


As I’ve reported several times in the past week (most recently HERE),  President Obama is holding up well in the polls despite all the so-called scandals swirling about his administration.

Nor is their much reason to expect that situation to change any time soon, as Jill Lawrence EXPLAINS:

Given the noise level on Capitol Hill, cable TV, and social media, Obama’s 50 percent-plus showings in recent polls from CNN, Pew, and ABC/Washington Post seem somewhat surprising. But two veteran political pollsters, one from each party, say that Obama can expect to maintain his standing as long as there’s no evidence that he was involved in the two big furors of the moment: the Internal Revenue Service targeting conservative groups for extra scrutiny, and the Justice Department seizing Associated Press phone records as part of a leak investigation.

Republican Bill McInturff and Democrat Stan Greenberg agree that Obama is in a relatively strong position short of “a real set of facts that implicates the president,” as Greenberg put it. The reasons include Obama’s steadfast coalition of blacks, Latinos, and young people, and a Washington tradition of leaving the president in the dark.

The president’s core base has kept his approval rating in the mid-40s or higher through the five years of his presidency, McInturff says, and won’t desert him. He calls that unusual, and you only have to look back one administration to see why. George W. Bush had job-approval ratings in the 20s and 30s for most of his second term. Obama’s job approval could drop over time due to the controversies, McInturff says, “but will they restructure his job approval? Not with the information we have today.”


The favorability gap between Obama and the Republican Party is substantial, with views of Obama well above 50 percent favorable in most polls and Republicans hovering at 60 percent unfavorable. The generally good impression of Obama is periodically reinforced by events in and out of his control. For instance, his commencement address at Morehouse, a college for black men, was a highly personal speech about overcoming adversity, his own fatherless childhood and his not always constructive race-consciousness, and the need to take personal responsibility to break cycles of poverty and broken families. Clips of the speech on the network news served to remind people not just of the history he represents but of the personal qualities that hold appeal across party lines.

The tornado in Oklahoma is also intruding on the news cycle in a way that shows Obama at his most caring. “The people of Moore should know that their country will remain on the ground, there for them, beside them as long as it takes,” he said Tuesday, his words similar to what he said after Hurricane Sandy, the Newtown shootings, the Boston bombings, and the Texas plant explosion.

After Sandy, which devastated parts of New York and New Jersey, Obama’s approval ratings rose. But that’s unlikely to happen with the tornado. McInturff points out that it did not happen in an international media center with hundreds of reporters to cover it. And let’s face it, Gov. Mary Fallin is no Chris Christie. Still, the tornado story is so tragic and compelling that it has forced the media off its exclusive scandal focus, at least temporarily.


1 Comment

  1. Robert

    Who and where are they polling? Ar Democrats that shallow? I found this person noted below, posting on The Huffington Post website. I think he nails the problems in the administration very succinctly. The more I observe Obama they more I realize he’s not the person we thought we were voting for.

    The comment that begins with is well worth reading“With FISA, something Obama said when he first ran for the presidency he was going to filibuster but even before the election voted for instead and The Patriot Act we’ve let our liberties take a slide into the gutter. With this attack on the press, it now slides further only into the sewer…” see the link for the rest. This guy has made some very revealing comments. Obama is in place to further the Neocon agenda. And is targeting any power, including the media, that ucerpts his goals. I thought we voted for him because we didn’t like the direction Bush took us?

    This poster on the Huffington Post “Steamboater”, appears from his picture to be a young Black man. Blacks supported the president in very high numbers. I think its good that people in the Black community are seeing the candidate they thought they were voting for isn’t the same person were seeing in action.


    And then there’s this from Jonathon Turley.

    Obama: A disaster for civil liberties
    He may prove the most disastrous president in our history in terms of civil liberties.
    September 29, 2011|By Jonathan Turley

    With the 2012 presidential election before us, the country is again caught up in debating national security issues, our ongoing wars and the threat of terrorism. There is one related subject, however, that is rarely mentioned: civil liberties.

    Protecting individual rights and liberties — apart from the right to be tax-free — seems barely relevant to candidates or voters. One man is primarily responsible for the disappearance of civil liberties from the national debate, and he is Barack Obama. While many are reluctant to admit it, Obama has proved a disaster not just for specific civil liberties but the civil liberties cause in the United States.

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