Nate Silver sees Dick Durbin as 95-percent likely to win re-election to the Senate
Nate Silver, the best political numbers-cruncher in the business, sees only one chance in 20 that Republican challenger Jim Oberweis will unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois in the November election.
Silver also rates Republicans as a “slight favorite” to win control of the Senate. Beltway pundits generally give the GOP a more likely chance to take over the upper chamber of Congress.
But, of course, the election is still more than seven months away. Lots of things can change over that span of time.
Silver’s latest forecast is HERE.
When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.
Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer…