Would success in this year’s midterm elections give Republicans false hopes for 2016?


A couple of weeks ago, I posted a column by Scott Galupo of American Conservative magazine in which it was argued that Republican gains in this year’s elections could be likened to a pair of “cement shoes.”

Galupo said GOP “control of Congress depends, in many ultrasafe Republican districts and several deepest of deep red states, in part on fealty to conservative doctrine that will be problematic for the next GOP presidential contender.”

The problem will stem in part from continued Republican opposition to immigration reform, Galupo said.

In a COLUMN published yesterday in the National Journal, political analyst Charlie Cook pursued much the same theme about the potential trap in which the GOP might find itself:

Republicans may win a bunch of races [this year] without measurably improving their party’s “brand” and without making any clear progress among minority, young, moderate, and female voters. The fact that midterm electorates are generally older, whiter, and more conservative than their counterparts in presidential elections exacerbates the difference between the world of 2014 and the one that will exist in 2016. The Republicans can win in 2014 without having fixed their problems…

Positions that can be right at home within a Right to Life rally, in a safely conservative congressional district, or even in a solidly conservative GOP primary, can be a huge millstone around the necks of Republican candidates in competitive general elections in many districts and states.


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