Posts filed under '2008 presidential campaign'
May 8th, 2008
Freeport’s own Dan Balz, writing in today’s edition of the Washington Post, reported THIS about Hillary Clinton’s grim prospects of winning the Democratic presidential nomination:
“I sent a message to one of her most loyal supporters early Wednesday morning asking what are her realistic options? ‘She has only one option,’ he replied. ‘Gracefully exit and help unify the party to beat [John] McCain.’ How quickly, he was asked. ‘I would advise them to figure out how to do it as soon as this weekend,’ he replied.”
This is but one example of how the media narrative and the prevailing political winds have changed in the past two days from according a bit of lingering viability to Clinton’s candidacy to declaring her hopelessly out of the running.
Another sign is the cover of Time magazine (above), which hits newstands tomorrow.
And then there’s the abject desperation evident in Hillary’s REMARK yesterday that she enjoys greater support than Obama ”among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans…who had not completed college.”
Make what you will of that coded language, but it’s not the kind of stuff you’d expect to hear from a viable presidential candidate in the Democratic Party. She sounds like George Wallace, circa 1968.
She’s finished.
UPDATE: Pollster John Zogby WRITES that as many as 30 super-delegates will endorse Obama “probably today, but certainly within 48 hours.”
May 7th, 2008
Impressed by Barack Obama’s ability to survive their endless harping on the Rev. Wright issue, America’s elite political pundits suddenly HAVE DECIDED that Hillary Clinton’s presidential candidacy is now hopeless.
I could have told them that six weeks ago. In fact, I, among others, did TELL THEM that.
POSTSCRIPT: For your viewing pleasure, here’s a video on this matter:
May 7th, 2008
Ask yourself these questions:
What if Barack Obama fails to carry the white vote in November? And fails to carry the rural vote? And the small-town vote? And gun owners?
What if he fails to carry the Midwest?
What if he loses in all of those demographic and geographic categories? Can he still win the presidency?
Well, it’s counterintuitive to say so, but the answer is yes. Check THIS.
May 6th, 2008
The Drudge Report posted a one-sentence story late tonight that reads:
“Hillary plans to huddle with undecided super delegates tomorrow; gauging if she can go on…”
Drudge says the story is “developing.”
At this writing, Clinton seems likely to win Indiana by only a narrow margin, if at all. If she and her people don’t recognize that her campaign is doomed, they’re too dumb to be running the country.
May 6th, 2008
Freeport’s own Dan Balz has THIS PIECE in The Washington Post, and Adam Nagourney of The New York Times offers THIS.
Oh, and Mark Halperin of Time magazine, the most overrated pundit in the Class of ‘08, has THIS.
I made my predictions HERE on Sunday, but I may tweak them a bit (or a lot) as the day goes on. I try to make political prognostications with my head rather than my heart, but that isn’t always easy. I want to think Barack Obama can win both contests today, but I’m not ready to say he will.
What say you?
UPDATE: The final Zogby TRACKING POLL has Obama leading by 14 points in North Carolina and by 2 points in Indiana. It should be noted, however, that Zogby’s record so far this season has been less than impressive.
UPDATE II: Drudge SAYS Clinton campaign insiders see her losing in North Carolina by as much as 15 points.
UPDATE III: THIS GUY says women are abandoning Hillary in droves.
UPDATE IV: I’m picking up some buzz that lots of erstwhile Republicans in affluent suburbs of Indianapolis are taking Democratic ballots, but to whose benefit — Obama’s or Clinton’s – is not clear.
UPDATE V: OK, I’m ready to declare the outcome of the North Carolina primary. It’s not yet noon here in the Midwest, but on the basis of turnout numbers and other factors I’ve examined, I see Obama winning N.C. by a double-digit margin. You can take it to the bank.
April 30th, 2008
The political sophisticates who figure that the flap over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has pretty well doomed Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy had better think again.
The latest Wall Street Journal-NBC poll SHOWS that Americans are more troubled by the relationship between two other men.
Guess who.
POSTSCRIPT: That same poll shows Obama with a national lead of 3 percentage points over Hillary Clinton and 3 percentage points over John McCain. THIS OTHER POLL shows Obama leading Hillary by 8 percentage points and tied with John McCain.
Yeah, that Rev. Wright stuff is just killing him, isn’t it? Maybe he should get out of the race.
UPDATE: Pat Buchanan tonight on MSNBC:
”If President Bush is more unpopular than the Reverend Wright, the Republicans are in a lot of trouble.”
Maybe George Stephanopoulos will ask this question the next time he interviews McCain: “Do you think President Bush loves America as much as you do?
UPDATE II: Jonathan Martin of Politico is out with THIS REPORT, which includes the following passage about sentiments among Republican activists:
“From top to bottom, from McCain down to the youthful campaign and party staffers who work nearly around the clock to get him elected, the working assumption seems to be that the Democratic contest is over and Obama has won.
“Even when Clinton attacks McCain, President Bush or GOP policies, the response is either outright silence or snarky, dismissive ridicule about a failed campaign barely relevant enough to merit a response.”
UPDATE III: And then there’s THIS GOOD NEWS for Obama.
April 28th, 2008
ONE OF THEM is pretty well-run. THE OTHER is not.
So, which of the two portends competence in the White House?
April 26th, 2008
The Washington Post REPORTS today that a growing number of major financial backers of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign have had it with her sliming of Barack Obama.
Said one: “I think she’s destroying the Democratic Party.”
April 25th, 2008
THIS GUY figures that if Barack Obama drops out now, Hillary Clinton will take a fractured Democratic Party down to defeat in November — and Obama will win the presidency in 2012.
It’s a crazy notion, for sure, but it’s fascinating to ponder.
April 24th, 2008
Hillary Clinton’s rationales for staying in the race become more silly by the hour.
If she and the Democratic Party poobahs deny Barack Obama the nomination, even a Republican candidate as weak as John McCain will have no trouble winning in November.
Good arguments against her are found HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE.
UPDATE: HERE’s an educated (and complicated) estimate of the popular-vote totals Clinton and Obama will have at the end of the primary season.
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