Great expectations
6 comments May 5th, 2008
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You can have a Dickens (ahem) of a time trying to predict the ultimate outcome of tomorrow’s balloting if you play the expectations game as part of the process.
See, it’s not just a matter of who wins the popular tallies in Indiana and North Carolina. You also have to consider the expectations factors.
Does Barack Obama have to win North Carolina by a sizable margin to be the real winner? Does Hillary Clinton have to win Indiana by more than a smidgen?
THIS GUY offers a quick survey of the expectations.
POSTSCRIPT: THE SAME GUY has some good advice about not putting too much stock in poll averages (or “polls of polls,” as they’re sometimes called.
