Frederick of Hollywood still viable?

Add comment January 24th, 2008

Hey, I thought Fred Thompson was out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Not necessarily, according to THIS GUY.  But the guy’s wrong.

Fred’s gone

4 comments January 22nd, 2008

The WORD this afternoon is that Fred Thompson is dropping his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

Thompson’s problem, I think, was that the early buzz about his presidential ambitions convinced him that he would be hoisted on the shoulders of an ecstatic American populace and carried triumphantly to the White House — without his ever having to utter more than a few conservative cliches.

But he peaked too soon — way too soon.

This past June, nearly three months before he formally announced his candidacy, Thompson became the front-runner for the GOP nomination merely on the wings of rumors that he might throw his hat into the ring. He must have thought to himself that this exercise was going to be like a walk in the park. Perhaps that’s why he dawdled for so long before taking the plunge.

Thompson’s early popularity made no sense to me. The vast majority of Americans knew nothing of him beyond what they’d seen of him in movies and on television. Ordinary folks who saw him as presidential timber apparently were only  enamored of the kind of fictional characters he plays. They seemed to think of him as a Washington outsider, unaware that he had been paid tons of money over several decades to pimp for corporations in the corridors of political power. They seemed not to know that his military experience had been pretty much limited to roles in movies like “The Hunt for Red October.”

It all seemed to fit a certain curious tendency among some conservative Republicans.  They claim to hate Hollywood, but they’re more likely than liberal Democrats to fall in love with actors (Ronald Reagan, John Wayne, et al).

I have a theory: Social conservatives, more than liberals, tend to embrace myths and make-believe. They distrust realities that don’t jibe with their fairy tales. They’re more inclined to dismiss scientific evidence of evolution and global-warming. They’re more inclined to see the world in simple terms of good and bad — with no ambiguities — just like in John Wayne’s movies. And just like the false images of America Ronald Reagan used to peddle.

Social conservatives also aren’t likely to subscribe to this philosophy from Adlai Stevenson, the late governor of Illinois and twice a candidate for president: “Patriotism is not short, frenzied outbursts of emotion, but the tranquil and steady dedication of a lifetime.”

Social conservatives generally see the American flag as more sacred than the U.S. Constitution. That’s because the flag is about emotion, while the Constitution is about complicated concepts that require courts to intepret. We get no freedoms from the flag, but we are supposed to treat it with almost religious reverence. We get our American system — freedoms and all — from the Constitution, but nobody’s going to get upset if I carelessly throw a copy of it in the garbage.

For Fred Thompson, the latest Tinseltown personality to seize the imaginations of social conservatives, the bubble burst when his soporific, almost disinterested, campaign style turned out not to be exactly what the GOP  faithful had expected of him. He eventually showed a little zip in the winter debates, but it was too late.

However, if the Republicans are still looking for a Hollywood type to ride to the rescue, maybe Chuck Norris will make himself available once his candidate, Mike Huckabee, follows Thompson out the door.

Frederick of Hollywood, exit stage right

1 comment January 19th, 2008

THIS prominent right-wing blog site says Fred Thompson is gone.

POSTSCRIPT: Hmmm. I wonder if Don Manzullo got MY LETTER of a few weeks ago.

Best video clips of the week

Add comment January 18th, 2008

Josh Marshall is your genial host (and he asks for your help at the end):

Predictions for Saturday’s contests

Add comment January 18th, 2008

My record of prognostications is a little spotty this season, but here’s where I make my big comeback.

In the South Carolina Republican primary, John McCain will benefit from blowback against the crap the extremists are throwing at him (see HERE) and will edge out Mike Huckabee. Fred Thompson will finish a weak third.

Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary in the Palmetto State by a sizable margin over Hillary Clinton. John Edwards, a South Carolina native, will fare poorly.

It’ll be much closer in the Democratic caucuses in Nevada. I’m picking Obama to eke out a victory, but I wouldn’t make any big bets on it.

Mitt Romney will win in Nevada by a wide margin.

UPDATE: Upon further reflection, and in light of the latest polls, I’m changing my outlook on the Democratic caucuses in Nevada to “too close to call” between Clinton and Obama. Edwards remains out of it.

Ok, Now I get it (I think)

4 comments January 16th, 2008

So Mitt Romney won the Republican presidential primary in Michigan on Tuesday, the party’s third different victor in as many contests this month.

Does this just further muddle the GOP race? You’d think so, wouldn’t you? For me, it has the opposite effect.  It makes the picture more clear. Romney’s going to be the nominee.

Yes, I had predicted that John McCain would win in Michigan, and now I see the error in my calculations.

McCain won this primary handily eight years ago with a lot of crossover votes from Democrats and independents. I thought that would happen again this time, especially since there was no real contest on the Democratic side, but it didn’t.  For whatever reason, a far greater percentage of voters in this year’s GOP primary were actually regular Republicans.

Well, John McCain doesn’t do well among regular Republicans. I didn’t fully understand that until yesterday. And now I figure he can’t win the nomination. The party faithful just don’t cotton much to this guy.

What about Mike Huckabee? He’s going nowhere.  His third-place finish in Michigan was weak.  The party establishment is against him. His win in Iowa now appears to have been a fluke.

Rudy Giuliani? He probably was pleased to see Romney win on Tuesday, lest McCain’s surge gain irresistable momentum. But now the momentum is with Romney, and Rudy hasn’t got a chance of stopping it. Besides, how in the world is a thrice-married, pro-choice, pro-gay-rights former mayor of New York going to become the standard-bearer of the Republican Party? Hey, they might as well nominate me. Not gonna happen.

As for Fred Thompson, he peaked about a month before he announced his candidacy and has been sliding downward with every campaign appearance he makes.

So there it is.  The Republican race is over.  Move along, folks, nothing to see here.  The action is over on the Democratic side.

 In November, it’s going to be Romney vs. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

Michigan predictions

5 comments January 15th, 2008

The polls show the Republican contest in Michigan to be too close to call, but I expect that John McCain will win by at least five percentage points over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee not far behind in third.

If this is right, Romney will be in deep trouble and will face pressure to get out of the race, which would greatly please Rudy Giuliani (who still doesn’t have a chance at the nomination, anyway).

If Huckabee finishes third in Michigan, he’ll have to win in South Carolina on Saturday to maintain any real hope of winning the nomination.

Fred Thompson and Ron Paul? They aren’t even dark horses in this race.

On the Democratic side, most of the candidates have shunned the Michigan primary in accordance with the national party’s displeasure with the early date. Hillary Clinton is the only contender whose name will appear on the ballot. But therein lies a risk.

If Hillary doesn’t draw a whole lot more votes than the “uncommitted” choice on the ballot, she’ll be politically embarrassed and will lose a bit of her momentum from New Hampshire.

Some liberal bloggers are encouraging Michigan Democrats to take Republican ballots and mark for Romney.  The theory is that a Romney victory today would throw the GOP race into further turmoil and slow the McCain surge.

But I don’t think many Dems are going to heed the suggestion,  even if their own party’s ballot offers little choice. 

Open letter to Don Manzullo

9 comments January 13th, 2008

(NOTE: I’ve moved this post from a few days ago back to the top to give greater exposure to a few new comments.)

Dear Rep. Manzullo:

Sorry to bother you at such a difficult time, what with Fred Thompson, your choice for the Republican presidential nomination, now teetering on the brink of political oblivion. You have my heartfelt sympathy as you disappointedly await Fred’s imminent announcement that he’ll soon be heading back to Hollywood where he’ll be trapped into working with all those leftists in show business.

I can understand why, as vice chairman of Fred’s Illinois campaign,  you have to stick with him to the bitter end.  But certainly you recognize that you should be making plans to go with somebody else once Fred has released you from your commitment to his ill-fated candidacy. After all, it just won’t do for our congressman to be without a bandwagon to ride in this glorious parade.

Maybe I can be of help in winnowing down the possibilities for you.

 The first part is automatic: Ron Paul is out of the question.  He’s the choice of all kinds of conspiracy freaks.  You don’t want anything to do with him or them.  And you simply can’t sign on with Rudy Giuliani.  What would it say about you if you endorsed a guy who’s been married three times (including once to his cousin), a guy who is pro-choice on abortion, pro gay rights and pro-who-knows-what-else?

So, we’re left with three candidates, any one of whom could still win the nomination. Let’s sort through this.

Mitt Romney? Good-lookin’ guy, for sure, but he’s too slick and too insincere.  Way too insincere. I mean, he’s a more prolific flipper than a fry cook at McDonald’s. Besides, if he doesn’t win in Michigan next week, a distinct possibility,  he’s probably out of the race. So, no, Romney’s not your man.

Mike Huckabee? He’s a  likable fellow, but he’s in over his head. His record as governor of Arkansas is spotty at best and certainly not one that would appeal to conservatives. His grasp of the issues is a bit shaky. Moreover, as you know, the Republican establishment is scared to death that he would take the party ticket down to crushing defeat in November.

OK, so that leaves us with John McCain. By process of elimination, you have nowhere else to go.  McCain it is.

Hey, that was easy, wasn’t it?

Have a nice time on the Straight Talk Express.

P.S.: You might want to check what THIS GUY has to say. He, too, figures you’ve got nowhere to go except with McCain.

Huck writes Metamucil script for Fred

Add comment January 11th, 2008

Here are your N.H. primary results

2 comments January 8th, 2008

Hey, why wait until tonight to find out how the Granite State elections turned out?

Here’s the order of finish:

Republicans

• John McCain

• Mitt Romney

• Ron Paul

• Mike Huckabee

• Rudy Giuliani

Democrats

• Barack Obama

• John Edwards

• Hillary Clinton

• Bill Richardson

• Dennis Kucinich

The riskiest predictions, if you haven’t noticed, are those that peg Clinton and Paul for third place in their respective primaries.

If I’m right about Clinton,  she’s toast.  Even if she finishes second, she faces tough sledding and will have to win Florida to retain viability going into Super Duper Tuesday.

Giuliani, too, has to win in Florida or his cause is hopeless.

Fred Thompson will be out of the race by the weekend.

UPDATE: The first returns in the New Hampshire primaries are in from the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, and Barack Obama has as many votes as all of the Republican candidates put together:

Democrats
Senator Barack Obama 7
John Edwards - 2
Gov. Bill Richardson - 1
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton - 0

Republicans
Senator John McCain - 4
Mitt Romney - 2
Rudolph Giuliani - 1
Fred Thompson - 0
Ron Paul - 0