Posts filed under 'Rudy Giuliani'
January 24th, 2008
It’s becoming INCREASINGLY LIKELY that Rudy Giuliani will come in third or fourth in the Republican primary in Florida next Tuesday and will be finished as a presidential hopeful.
So where will his supporters go?
I think most of them would be naturally inclined to go with John McCain, whose image as something of a maverick is closest to Rudy’s.
But if Mitt Romney wins in Florida, he’ll have a momentum — a seeming inevitability — that could draw a lot of erstwhile Giuliani people.
In short, the bulk of the Giuliani crowd will gravitate to the side of whoever wins in Florida. (And that winner won’t be Mike Huckabee. He’s history.)
As I said here last week, I expect Romney to be the nominee. McCain’s problem is that he needs independent voters to prevail. But some of the upcoming primaries are open only to registered Republicans, many of whom aren’t too keen on McCain.
Moreover, in some of the states where independents will be allowed to participate in the Republican primaries, McCain will find himself in competition with Democrat Barack Obama for those voters.
January 23rd, 2008
As you know, Feb. 5, 2008, looms as the most momentous date in the history of presidential primaries, with balloting scheduled in 22 states, including some big ones (California, New York, Illinois).
The occasion is made all the more important by the fact that the nominations in both parties will still be up for grabs when that day dawns. (Who knows? Maybe Rudy Giuliani will still be in the race. Not that it will matter, of course.)
What should we call such a portentous day?
”Super Tuesday” doesn’t suffice. That’s so 1990s.
“Super Duper Tuesday”? Not much better.
“Tsunami Tuesday”? Too insensitive. Tsunamis are deadly disasters.
I ran across this one today: “Super Duper Mega Awesome Orgasmic Tuesday.” I like it, but it’s too long. Doesn’t fit nicely into headlines.
Help me here, people.
Whoever sends me the best idea will win two tickets to Ron Paul’s Inaugural Ball next January (if he’s elected president). Good luck.
January 22nd, 2008
Former Republican Illinois governors Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar, popular moderates both, should have known better than to endorse Rudy Giuliani for president.
They should have known that a thrice-married, pro-choice, pro-gay-rights pol from New York City has as much chance as I do of becoming their party’s choice for the White House.
They have no good cause for surprise that Giuliani now stands on the precipice of POLITICAL OBLIVION.
January 18th, 2008
Josh Marshall is your genial host (and he asks for your help at the end):
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January 16th, 2008
So Mitt Romney won the Republican presidential primary in Michigan on Tuesday, the party’s third different victor in as many contests this month.
Does this just further muddle the GOP race? You’d think so, wouldn’t you? For me, it has the opposite effect. It makes the picture more clear. Romney’s going to be the nominee.
Yes, I had predicted that John McCain would win in Michigan, and now I see the error in my calculations.
McCain won this primary handily eight years ago with a lot of crossover votes from Democrats and independents. I thought that would happen again this time, especially since there was no real contest on the Democratic side, but it didn’t. For whatever reason, a far greater percentage of voters in this year’s GOP primary were actually regular Republicans.
Well, John McCain doesn’t do well among regular Republicans. I didn’t fully understand that until yesterday. And now I figure he can’t win the nomination. The party faithful just don’t cotton much to this guy.
What about Mike Huckabee? He’s going nowhere. His third-place finish in Michigan was weak. The party establishment is against him. His win in Iowa now appears to have been a fluke.
Rudy Giuliani? He probably was pleased to see Romney win on Tuesday, lest McCain’s surge gain irresistable momentum. But now the momentum is with Romney, and Rudy hasn’t got a chance of stopping it. Besides, how in the world is a thrice-married, pro-choice, pro-gay-rights former mayor of New York going to become the standard-bearer of the Republican Party? Hey, they might as well nominate me. Not gonna happen.
As for Fred Thompson, he peaked about a month before he announced his candidacy and has been sliding downward with every campaign appearance he makes.
So there it is. The Republican race is over. Move along, folks, nothing to see here. The action is over on the Democratic side.
In November, it’s going to be Romney vs. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
January 15th, 2008
The polls show the Republican contest in Michigan to be too close to call, but I expect that John McCain will win by at least five percentage points over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee not far behind in third.
If this is right, Romney will be in deep trouble and will face pressure to get out of the race, which would greatly please Rudy Giuliani (who still doesn’t have a chance at the nomination, anyway).
If Huckabee finishes third in Michigan, he’ll have to win in South Carolina on Saturday to maintain any real hope of winning the nomination.
Fred Thompson and Ron Paul? They aren’t even dark horses in this race.
On the Democratic side, most of the candidates have shunned the Michigan primary in accordance with the national party’s displeasure with the early date. Hillary Clinton is the only contender whose name will appear on the ballot. But therein lies a risk.
If Hillary doesn’t draw a whole lot more votes than the “uncommitted” choice on the ballot, she’ll be politically embarrassed and will lose a bit of her momentum from New Hampshire.
Some liberal bloggers are encouraging Michigan Democrats to take Republican ballots and mark for Romney. The theory is that a Romney victory today would throw the GOP race into further turmoil and slow the McCain surge.
But I don’t think many Dems are going to heed the suggestion, even if their own party’s ballot offers little choice.
January 14th, 2008
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January 13th, 2008
(NOTE: I’ve moved this post from a few days ago back to the top to give greater exposure to a few new comments.)
Dear Rep. Manzullo:
Sorry to bother you at such a difficult time, what with Fred Thompson, your choice for the Republican presidential nomination, now teetering on the brink of political oblivion. You have my heartfelt sympathy as you disappointedly await Fred’s imminent announcement that he’ll soon be heading back to Hollywood where he’ll be trapped into working with all those leftists in show business.
I can understand why, as vice chairman of Fred’s Illinois campaign, you have to stick with him to the bitter end. But certainly you recognize that you should be making plans to go with somebody else once Fred has released you from your commitment to his ill-fated candidacy. After all, it just won’t do for our congressman to be without a bandwagon to ride in this glorious parade.
Maybe I can be of help in winnowing down the possibilities for you.
The first part is automatic: Ron Paul is out of the question. He’s the choice of all kinds of conspiracy freaks. You don’t want anything to do with him or them. And you simply can’t sign on with Rudy Giuliani. What would it say about you if you endorsed a guy who’s been married three times (including once to his cousin), a guy who is pro-choice on abortion, pro gay rights and pro-who-knows-what-else?
So, we’re left with three candidates, any one of whom could still win the nomination. Let’s sort through this.
Mitt Romney? Good-lookin’ guy, for sure, but he’s too slick and too insincere. Way too insincere. I mean, he’s a more prolific flipper than a fry cook at McDonald’s. Besides, if he doesn’t win in Michigan next week, a distinct possibility, he’s probably out of the race. So, no, Romney’s not your man.
Mike Huckabee? He’s a likable fellow, but he’s in over his head. His record as governor of Arkansas is spotty at best and certainly not one that would appeal to conservatives. His grasp of the issues is a bit shaky. Moreover, as you know, the Republican establishment is scared to death that he would take the party ticket down to crushing defeat in November.
OK, so that leaves us with John McCain. By process of elimination, you have nowhere else to go. McCain it is.
Hey, that was easy, wasn’t it?
Have a nice time on the Straight Talk Express.
P.S.: You might want to check what THIS GUY has to say. He, too, figures you’ve got nowhere to go except with McCain.
January 9th, 2008
Florida is supposed to be Rudy Giuliani’s firewall, the state where he finally can get back in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Not gonna happen, it says HERE.
January 8th, 2008
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