Is Obama getting a big bounce from McCain’s houses gaffe?

1 comment August 25th, 2008

This meta-analysis stuff from a neuroscience professor is pretty arcane, but the payoff for our purposes can be found by clicking on the last of the five links in THIS PIECE.

The bottom line is that Obama seems to have picked about 20 electoral votes from John McCain’s embarrassment of domicile riches.

Away for a while

1 comment August 13th, 2008

I’ll be away from Applesauce for a few days, but a few pre-timed posts and perhaps a recycled oldie or two will appear in my absence.

Responses to comments from readers will resume upon my return. Until then, argue among yourselves.

A fun question for a lazy summer Sunday

4 comments August 3rd, 2008

Try this one on family or friends:

What one thing comes to mind when you ponder these words as a group?:

Black, white, brown, gray, strong, moody, chase, hunt, stone, field, woods, story, burger, brewer, frankfurter, butler and day.

To be fair about this, you should not turn to Google or any other Internet search engine. Register your guesses in the comments section, and I’ll acknowledge the first correct answer (which, of course, has to match the one thing that was on my mind when I put that list of words together).

This little quiz is just for entertainment purposes. No wagering, please.

UPDATE: After nearly 12 hours, nobody has even ventured a guess.

The answer is that all those words are surnames of former U.S. Supreme Court justices.

Political polls and the nudge factor

1 comment July 30th, 2008

About 20 years ago, before the rise of the World Wide Web, I wrote a column about what I called “the nudge factor” in public opinion polls.

My focus was on surveys concerning issues rather than political races.  And my theory, though doubtless not original, was something that just somehow came to mind rather than from any hypothesis advanced by an expert on the subject.

I argued that lots of people who are surveyed on certain issues, especially those issues that have not been the subject of intense national debate, haven’t really given them much thought and therefore haven’t formulated any serious opinions.

Wouldn’t such people merely declare themselves undecided or indicate that their responses belong in the “don’t know” category? I think not. Many people don’t want to admit ignorance on any but the most arcane matters. They don’t want to look like dummies.

Consequently, as I argued in that column, pollsters tend to unintentionally nudge some people toward giving answers to questions they’ve never previously considered.  In such cases, the responses break down, one way or the other,  into percentages that are not necessarily representative of the public as a whole. The polls become skewed by the nudge factor.

Something akin to my theory seems to be part of a forthcoming book (above) in which David W. Moore, a former senior editor at Gallup, argues that polls often fail to differentiate between “those who express deeply held views and those who have hardly, if at all, thought about an issue.”

There’s more about the book HERE.

Our theme song: “Got Dat Applesauce”

2 comments July 25th, 2008

Would you permanently forfeit your right to vote for $1 million?

10 comments May 17th, 2008

I borrowed the question from an online poll on DailyKos, but I’m not much interested in a tally of votes on one side or the other.

Of greater interest to me is your explanation of why you would or wouldn’t take the cash offer.

So, what say you?

Open thread

4 comments May 13th, 2008

Blogging here likely will be sparse today, as I’m a bit under the weather.

Fight among yourselves. See if I care.

Them xenophobes is reel gud spelers

10 comments May 4th, 2008

Open thread

11 comments May 1st, 2008

No spilling of blood here, please.

Open thread

8 comments April 30th, 2008

This went so well yesterday, I thought I’d give it another whirl.

I’m off to do a radio gig with Ken DeCoster on WNTA this morning, and I’ve got errands to run.

Chat among yourselves in my absence.