Viewership of presidential campaign ads measured

The Wall Street Journal is running a weekly measure of how many people are watching  campaign ads in the presidential race. The latest such REPORT shows that the most widely viewed ad last week was one that “uses footage of Mitt Romney singing ‘America the Beautiful’ while running through footage of various places, including the Cayman Islands and Switzerland.” UPDATE: Meanwhile, Ted Brader of the Washington Post offers FIVE MYTHS about campaign ads: 1. Negative ads are more effective than positive ones. 2. Campaign...

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One in four voters still up for grabs in presidential election

It seems safe to say that almost everyone reading this post has already made up his or her mind on which presidential candidate they’ll vote for in the November election. After all, this is a political blog, and undecided voters, I would think, tend not to read political blogs. But there’s another angle to all of this that might not occur to the casual observer: Even among those voters who tell pollsters that they prefer one presidential candidate over the other, there are many who are less than firmly committed. Consider, for...

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Show of hands: Who thinks the presidential election won’t be very close after all?

  Everywhere I turn  these days, I see political pundits declaring in tones of great certainty that this year’s presidential election will be razor-close. I ain’t so sure about that. Yes, for months now, the major polls have shown a tight race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. And, yes, the respective political strengths and weaknesses of the candidates seem to be pretty well balanced. But I’ve got a suspicion that the vote tallies won’t be as close as conventional wisdom suggests. I see a popular-vote margin...

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GOP realists concede that it’s harder for Romney to win 270 electoral votes than for Obama

Erin McPike offers a WORTHY ANALYSIS of the challenges facing the Republican and Democratic camps in trying to capture 270 electoral votes for their respective presidential candidates: When potential electoral values are assigned to the two opposing camps, both sides look to John Kerry’s wins on the 2004 map as a base line for President Obama — and John McCain’s victories in 2008 as a starting point for Mitt Romney. In the minds of the political class, these focal points will always indicate an uphill climb for the challenger. That is...

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Perhaps the high court verdict on ObamaCare won’t affect November election after all

Conventional political wisdom in recent months has held that the Supreme Court’s ruling on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act will inevitably have a great effect on this year’s presidential election, one way or another. But now there’s a growing body of opinion to the contrary. Take, for example, THIS ARGUMENT from Charlie Cook, a widely respected political analyst: Notwithstanding the natural tendency for journalists to breathlessly cite everything (and every primary night!) as hugely consequential, some...

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