Mark Kirk’s dissing of Donald Trump won’t likely help him at the ballot box

  There doesn’t seem to be any self-serving political calculation in U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk’s declaration that he “cannot and will not” support the presidential candidacy of the racist Donald Trump. Kirk, an incumbent Republican, won’t win any favor from Democrats in his race against U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth just because he rejects Trump. More importantly, the gesture is certain to alienate at least part of the GOP base. But then, if Kirk stood by Trump, he would be tainted by association — especially in...

read more

Dear Speaker Ryan…

  You and I are not personal acquaintances, but we’re neighbors of sorts. Your congressional district is adjacent to mine, and our homes are only 35 miles apart. We’re both Americans of Irish heritage, and we both attended Catholic schools named for St. Mary. You’re a conservative Republican, and I’m a liberal Democrat, but that doesn’t necessarily make us exact opposites. I’d like to think that our love of America is fundamentally equal, though our respective political beliefs differ in many regards....

read more

Don’t tell me Bernie would do better against Trump than Hillary would

  Die-hard supporters of Bernie Sanders have been making the point lately that polls show their guy doing  better against Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton does. But that’s a grossly misleading interpretation of the polls, and here’s why: The polls show that Hillary’s backers would be more willing than Bernie’s backers to support the Democratic nominee even if it’s not their favorite candidate. Putting it another way, lots of Sanders’ supporters say they will not vote for Hillary in the general...

read more

Hunch: Trump will quit the race if he thinks he’ll lose by a wide margin

  As I’ve acknowledged on several previous occasions, my predictions over the past year regarding Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy have all been wrong. I said he wouldn’t actually make good on his talk about getting into the race. I said he wouldn’t file the required financial data. I said he wouldn’t have a chance of winning the Republican nomination. I said…well, you get my point. I have been wrong all along. Oh, sure, I still stand by my prediction that The Donald will not win the presidency....

read more

Again, let me reassure you that Hillary will defeat Trump

  In recent weeks, as Donald Trump’s lock on the Republican presidential nomination became more apparent, I have offered several arguments here that he won’t have a chance of overcoming Hillary Clinton in the general election. Perhaps the most persuasive of these cases is the one in which I pointed out that there simply are not enough angry white males to outweigh the demographic benefits Democrats enjoy in presidential elections. Hillary, the likely Democratic nominee, almost certainly will prevail among women, blacks,...

read more