Hunch: Trump will quit the race if he thinks he’ll lose by a wide margin

  As I’ve acknowledged on several previous occasions, my predictions over the past year regarding Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy have all been wrong. I said he wouldn’t actually make good on his talk about getting into the race. I said he wouldn’t file the required financial data. I said he wouldn’t have a chance of winning the Republican nomination. I said…well, you get my point. I have been wrong all along. Oh, sure, I still stand by my prediction that The Donald will not win the presidency....

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Again, let me reassure you that Hillary will defeat Trump

  In recent weeks, as Donald Trump’s lock on the Republican presidential nomination became more apparent, I have offered several arguments here that he won’t have a chance of overcoming Hillary Clinton in the general election. Perhaps the most persuasive of these cases is the one in which I pointed out that there simply are not enough angry white males to outweigh the demographic benefits Democrats enjoy in presidential elections. Hillary, the likely Democratic nominee, almost certainly will prevail among women, blacks,...

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Politics is an especially tricky business in this age of short attention spans

  If you’re middle-aged or older, you’re probably aware that the attention span of Americans in general — including you — has been declining in this age of multiplying media and countless intellectual stimuli. It’s small solace to me that my own loss of memory is probably attributable not just to advancing age but also to this explosion of media. The filing cabinet between my ears has long since become overloaded, mainly with trivia, rendering some of its contents less accessible than they used to be. Now,...

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Trump’s ugly rhetoric encourages bigots all over the world

  Let’s face it: Donald Trump has become a hero to people in far-flung places around the globe. But they’re the wrong kind of people, and Trump is the wrong kind of hero. The Donald has become America’s chief exporter of its ugliest product — bigotry.  Just as his followers here at home tend to be more racist than the Republican electorate on the whole, according to polls, his appeal abroad is strongest among the principal peddlers of hatred in foreign lands. This does not serve Trump’s vaunted objective of...

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Trump tries to play on unreasonable fears among gun enthusiasts

  One of the great ironies of American culture is that many of the self-styled tough guys who parrot the rhetoric of the National Rifle Association actually are nervous nellies who believe virtually all of the conspiratorial nonsense about plots to take away guns. For example, all through Barack Obama’s tenure as president, the scaredy-cats have bought into every ridiculous warning that the man in the White House spends his every waking hour on plans to send out an army of jack-booted thugs to seize  everyone’s firearms. It...

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