Most reputable polling analysts see a decline in GOP chances of a Senate takeover

As recently as July, the Republican Party was an odds-on favorite to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections. Some professional handicappers still think it’s likely that the GOP will win a majority of Senate seats, but there is far less certainty in their recent forecasts. Take, for example, what celebrated number-cruncher Nate Silver is SAYING: When we officially launched our forecastg model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections....

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Nate Silver says polling industry has problems, but good polls are still accurate

Nate Silver, a superstar of political polling analysis over the past six years, does not design or conduct polls himself. Rather, he interprets them with amazing accuracy. One of Silver’s great talents is distinguishing bad polls from good ones. He doesn’t get suckered by polls whose methodologies are suspect if not downright bogus. And he doesn’t tailor his analyses to suit his own political biases. Silver CONFESSED recently that there is cause for concern about the future of polling, but he hasn’t completely lost...

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Have Republican chances for takeover of Senate suddenly faded?

The passing of Labor Day signals a shift into high gear by the special breed of political scientists whose jobs are devoted to intense analysis of poll figures in the mid-term election races — and the early September projections are somewhat varied. While many prognosticators still see the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate, a few of them are not so sure. Consider, for example, THIS SITUATION at The Washington Post: On July 15, Election Lab, The Post’s election model, gave Republicans an 86 percent chance of...

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A second national poll shows that most Americans oppose Boehner’s lawsuit against Obama

It probably won’t matter to congressional Republicans that Americans generally disagree with THIS FOOLISH STRATEGY: A majority of Americans disapprove of the House Republican lawsuit against President Barack Obama, which charges that he overstepped his authority in failing to enforce the Affordable Care Act in a timely manner, according to a new CBS News poll. The House of Representatives voted last week along party lines to authorize Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) to file a suit forcing the president to enforce the law — in...

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Wall Street Journal poll: Most Americans want Sarah Palin to shut up

As is so often the case, just when you’ve lost almost all faith in the wisdom of the American populace, something comes along to cheer you up a bit. The latest example is a survey co-sponsored by Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal, no less, in which a majority of Americans say they would prefer that a certain unsuccessful politician keep her thoughts to herself at least for a while. The story is HERE: According to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg Public Policy Center survey, Americans would like to tell Sarah...

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