Evidence suggests that political polls tend to undercount Democrats

Republicans have complained from time to time that polls are biased against them, but now there’s evidence that the opposite might actually be the case. It could be that many of the major polling outfits are undercounting Democrats. Nate Cohn has a long piece on this matter HERE: Polls show that the Republicans have an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They lead in enough states to win control, and they have additional opportunities in North Carolina and New Hampshire to make up for potential upsets. As Election Day...

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Does either party have momentum going into the mid-term elections?

George H.W. Bush called it “the Big Mo” and  saw it  as a portent of his eventual victory in the presidential election of 1988. He was referring, of course, to his feeling that momentum was on his side as Election Day drew near. But, while Bush’s sense of momentum was correct, there have been other instances where Big Mo was just an illusion. For example, Mitt Romney and more than a few of his supporters thought that momentum was on his side at this point  two years ago. They were wrong. As this year’s mid-term U.S. ...

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Republican opposition to government spending has spawned a decline in public infrastructure

Nobel economist Paul Krugman NAILS IT: America used to be a country that built for the future. Sometimes the government built directly: Public projects, from the Erie Canal to the Interstate Highway System, provided the backbone for economic growth. Sometimes it provided incentives to the private sector, like land grants to spur railroad construction. Either way, there was broad support for spending that would make us richer. But nowadays we simply won’t invest, even when the need is obvious and the timing couldn’t be better. And don’t tell...

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Republicans never deliver on their promises to impeach Obama or sue him or whatever

I have to admit, I’m afraid, that Republican politicians have been pretty good at placating the angry hordes of Obama-haters with solemn promises that they’re going to sue the guy for something or other or might even impeach him one of these days. All of this rhetoric has given rise to persistent confidence on the part of the more naive wingnuts that Obama’s presidency will never last through two terms. I’ve received countless comments on my blog to the effect that America surely will rise up and send this unpatriotic...

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A poll of equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans almost always is worthless

Chuck Sweeny made a good point the other day in a front-page story in the Rockford Register Star about a recent poll on the Illinois gubernatorial race between Republican challenger Bruce Rauner and Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn. Sweeny warned readers against complaining that the poll at issue had more Democratic respondents than Republicans. This is a common beef among people who don’t understand the science of polling. These folks seem to think any poll that doesn’t include equal numbers of Democratic and Republican respondents is...

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