The race for party control of the Senate is still close, according to the best polls

Celebrated numbers-cruncher Nate Silver’s operation, which calls itself FiveThirtyEight, has focused on presumably the most reliable polls in the most important election races this year and has declared that the battle for control of the U.S. Senate remains a tight struggle. Harry Enten reports HERE: A new NPR poll conducted by the Democratic firm Democracy Corps and the Republican firm Resurgent Republic used live interviewers (and called cell phones) in 12 states with key Senate races. Unlike many “battleground” subsamples of national...

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Polling analyst Nate Silver says Democrats needn’t push the panic button — not yet, anyway

Celebrated numbers-cruncher Nate Silver says the FiveThirtyEight model on which he bases his political forecasts still indicates a close race for control of the U.S. Senate after the November midterm elections. Silver, like most other polling analysts, says Senate control will pivot on the outcome of elections in a handful of states. Democrats are not sitting as pretty as they were a few weeks, he notes, but it’s not yet time for them to push the panic button. Silver EXPLAINS: [T]here’s still a lot of campaigning to do, and one should...

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Most reputable polling analysts see a decline in GOP chances of a Senate takeover

As recently as July, the Republican Party was an odds-on favorite to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections. Some professional handicappers still think it’s likely that the GOP will win a majority of Senate seats, but there is far less certainty in their recent forecasts. Take, for example, what celebrated number-cruncher Nate Silver is SAYING: When we officially launched our forecastg model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections....

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Have Republican chances for takeover of Senate suddenly faded?

The passing of Labor Day signals a shift into high gear by the special breed of political scientists whose jobs are devoted to intense analysis of poll figures in the mid-term election races — and the early September projections are somewhat varied. While many prognosticators still see the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate, a few of them are not so sure. Consider, for example, THIS SITUATION at The Washington Post: On July 15, Election Lab, The Post’s election model, gave Republicans an 86 percent chance of...

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Nate Silver sees Dick Durbin as 95-percent likely to win re-election to the Senate

Nate Silver, the best political numbers-cruncher in the business, sees only one chance in 20 that Republican challenger  Jim Oberweis will unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois in the November election. Silver also rates Republicans as a “slight favorite” to win control of the Senate. Beltway pundits generally give the GOP a more likely chance to take over the upper chamber of Congress. But, of course, the election is still more than seven months away. Lots of things can change over that span of time....

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