Democrats in the new U.S. Senate got 20 million more votes than Republicans

One wonders how many Americans are aware of the provision in the U.S. Constitution that gives residents of Wyoming, the least-populated state in the Union, the same representation in the U.S. Senate as residents of California, the most-populated state in the Union. You see, every state, no matter how big or small in population, has two U.S. senators. The Founding Fathers figured that would spare the states with small populations from being politically overwhelmed by states with big populations. That makes sense — sort of. But, in...

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The race for party control of the Senate is still close, according to the best polls

Celebrated numbers-cruncher Nate Silver’s operation, which calls itself FiveThirtyEight, has focused on presumably the most reliable polls in the most important election races this year and has declared that the battle for control of the U.S. Senate remains a tight struggle. Harry Enten reports HERE: A new NPR poll conducted by the Democratic firm Democracy Corps and the Republican firm Resurgent Republic used live interviewers (and called cell phones) in 12 states with key Senate races. Unlike many “battleground” subsamples of national...

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Polling analyst Nate Silver says Democrats needn’t push the panic button — not yet, anyway

Celebrated numbers-cruncher Nate Silver says the FiveThirtyEight model on which he bases his political forecasts still indicates a close race for control of the U.S. Senate after the November midterm elections. Silver, like most other polling analysts, says Senate control will pivot on the outcome of elections in a handful of states. Democrats are not sitting as pretty as they were a few weeks, he notes, but it’s not yet time for them to push the panic button. Silver EXPLAINS: [T]here’s still a lot of campaigning to do, and one should...

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Most reputable polling analysts see a decline in GOP chances of a Senate takeover

As recently as July, the Republican Party was an odds-on favorite to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections. Some professional handicappers still think it’s likely that the GOP will win a majority of Senate seats, but there is far less certainty in their recent forecasts. Take, for example, what celebrated number-cruncher Nate Silver is SAYING: When we officially launched our forecastg model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections....

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Have Republican chances for takeover of Senate suddenly faded?

The passing of Labor Day signals a shift into high gear by the special breed of political scientists whose jobs are devoted to intense analysis of poll figures in the mid-term election races — and the early September projections are somewhat varied. While many prognosticators still see the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate, a few of them are not so sure. Consider, for example, THIS SITUATION at The Washington Post: On July 15, Election Lab, The Post’s election model, gave Republicans an 86 percent chance of...

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