Most reputable polling analysts see a decline in GOP chances of a Senate takeover

As recently as July, the Republican Party was an odds-on favorite to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections. Some professional handicappers still think it’s likely that the GOP will win a majority of Senate seats, but there is far less certainty in their recent forecasts. Take, for example, what celebrated number-cruncher Nate Silver is SAYING: When we officially launched our forecastg model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections....

read more

Have Republican chances for takeover of Senate suddenly faded?

The passing of Labor Day signals a shift into high gear by the special breed of political scientists whose jobs are devoted to intense analysis of poll figures in the mid-term election races — and the early September projections are somewhat varied. While many prognosticators still see the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate, a few of them are not so sure. Consider, for example, THIS SITUATION at The Washington Post: On July 15, Election Lab, The Post’s election model, gave Republicans an 86 percent chance of...

read more

Nate Silver sees Dick Durbin as 95-percent likely to win re-election to the Senate

Nate Silver, the best political numbers-cruncher in the business, sees only one chance in 20 that Republican challenger  Jim Oberweis will unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois in the November election. Silver also rates Republicans as a “slight favorite” to win control of the Senate. Beltway pundits generally give the GOP a more likely chance to take over the upper chamber of Congress. But, of course, the election is still more than seven months away. Lots of things can change over that span of time....

read more

Would a Republican takeover of the Senate doom chances for winning the White House?

You’re familiar, no doubt, with the old political saying that elections have consequences. But those consequences aren’t always obvious or predictable. Which brings to mind another old saying: Be careful what you wish for. Republicans are wishing for a takeover of the U.S. Senate in this year’s mid-term elections — and their prospects are looking at least fairly good. But such a victory might prove to be hollow, as Scott Galupo EXPLAINS....

read more

Why do some right-wingers want to take away your right to elect U.S. senators?

One hundred years ago this past May 31, a 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was officially adopted, changing the method by which U.S. senators are elected. Prior to 1913, senators were elected not by popular vote but by state legislators, per the original Constitution. But the potential for — indeed, the reality of — political corruption prompted a long-term and widespread movement for change. By 1910, most state legislatures had passed resolutions calling for reform of the system. Nary a complaint about the popular-vote...

read more