Piniella’s right to be cautious

Add comment September 30th, 2008

After the Cubs clinched the NL Central title on Sept. 20, some (most notably Terry Boers and Dan Bernstein from 670 Score Radio) got on Lou Piniella’s case for taking a cautious approach to the playoffs. It’s no secret that the best team during the regular season doesn’t always win the World Series. Face it, if the Florida Marlins can win two World Series in seven years, the postseason is virtually a crapshoot.

Regardless of the fact that the Cubs are the best team in the NL, Piniella had plenty of reasons to be concerned with potential NLDS opponents like the Phillies and the Mets. And now that they officially begin NLDS play against the Dodgers tomorrow, a high level of concern is still warranted.

This Dodgers playoff lineup isn’t the Dodgers lineup the Cubs faced during the regular season, where the Cubs went 5-2.

Trade deadline acquisition Manny Ramirez easily makes a case that 53 games is plenty of time shore up an NL MVP. With Manny in the lineup for the last two months, the previously 54-54 Dodgers went 30-24 (17-8 in September) on the back of his .396 batting average, 17 home runs and 53 RBIs. 

Also, don’t forget that Rafael Furcal, who missed both series against the Cubs and almost all of the 2008 season, is now healthy.

Looking ahead, if Carlos Zambrano continues to break down in game 2, the idea of Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda pitching game 3 in L.A. is very concerning. A June 6 Cubs loss at Dodger Stadium saw Kuroda pitch a complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts and zero walks.

And it doesn’t matter that Rich Harden–even with his 89 strikeouts in 71 innings for the Cubs–is Kuroda’s counterpart in game 3. Cubs bats have been notorious when it comes to giving Harden run support.

But, if there’s one reason (and there are many) the Cubs will win the series, it’s because they have the 17-win Ted Lilly waiting to pitch an “if necessary” game.

Duke of hazard

1 comment April 9th, 2008

Yesterday, The Cub Reporter released a list of all-time Cubs Killers (some obvious: Adam Dunn; some not: Dante “Shrek” Bichette). The list is all well and good, but it doesn’t mention any pitchers.

That being the case, I’d like to nominate Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke as Cubs Killer pitcher. Fittingly enough, he is making his ninth career start against the Cubs today.

Ever since Duke’s 2005 big league unveiling, the left-hander has frustrated Cubbie lineups. In 8 starts (6 at Wrigley) for 55.2 innings against the Cubs (his most against any team), Duke has a 4-2 record with an impressive 2.10 ERA (his second lowest against NL teams).

But it’s not as if Duke has been overpowering: from 2005-07, the Cubs still have hit a reasonable .268 with 7 hits-per-game against Duke (the Cubs hit .264 against lefties in the same time frame) and have kept his strikeouts-per-game (1.84) under his career average (1.89, prior to 2008).

The Cubs’ problem? Try Duke’s 2.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio against the North Siders (his career average is 1.86). From 2005-07 the Cubs drew a measly 2.7 walks-per-game; but against Duke, they couldn’t even muster the patience for two a game (13/8=1.6). Not good (or surprising) for a team notorious for failing to manufacture runs.

However, so far this season, the Cubs are improving their patience at the plate (29 drawn walks in 7 games) and already lead the league in OBP versus lefties (.471). If the Cubs keep that pace up for the rest of the season, the name “Zach Duke” might start sounding as intimidating as “Daisy Duke”. And that’ll put a smile on anyone’s face.