Court notes, earnings and the real real estate numbers

1 comment July 25th, 2008

My job here at the newspaper is morphing into one where my primary resonsibility is to chase statistics wherever I can find them.

Anyone who has read my columns know this is perfect for me. What you find boring I find fascinating as long as I can track it.

So if you like stats and data, come back here, that’s what I’ll be working on.

For instance, there’s a wealth of information you can get from the circuit clerk’s office if you ask for it.

The number of cases, for example, that have been filed in county courts peaked in 2004 at 109,751 then declined in ‘05 and ‘06 before turning upward in 2007 to 106,186.

Among the types of cases seeing declines — criminal misdemeanors, down from 12,004 in 1999 to 9,245 last year and Order of Protections peaked at 1,775 in 2004 and were down to 1,493 in 2007.

Some of the case types that have become more popular include small claims cases, mental health and chancery, which is a broad category that includes foreclosures.

Of those 100,000 or so cases that are filed each year, remarkably few ever go to trial. In the first three months of 2008, just 18 cases actually went to a jury verdict — three traffic cases, eight criminal misdemeanors, six felony cases and just one lawsuit. And the lawsuit shows how long of a road the court system can be, it was a medical malpractice case filed in 1999.

Starting in April, I began tracking the earnings of the companies on our Star 60 stock index. The index tracks companies important to the local economy. The theory being that if more of our Star 60 companies are reporting rising earnings than ones reported declines, that’s good for the area.

The second quarter was close with 32 of the 58 reporting increases in earnings compared to the same quarter in 2007. And the third quarter is off to a good start. Twenty eight companies have reported so far and 17 reported increases.

The earnings “winners” so far:

Ecolab, Union Pacific, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Exelon Corp., AT&T Inc., McDonalds, PepsiCo, Caterpillar, Paccar, SuperValu, Woodward Governor, Honeywell International, United Technologies, Danaher Corp., Reliance Steel & Aluminum, Textron Inc. and Landstar System.

The “losers.”

Ford Motor, AmerisourceBergen, National City Corp., Allstate Corp., UAL Corp., UPS Inc., AMCORE Financial, Associated Banc-Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and General Electric.

On Sunday, August 3, you will see the Register Star’s first real estate sales map by zip code based out of a real estate database we launched and have maintained since 2003.

Unlike numbers provided monthly and yearly by the Rockford Area Association of Realtors, our database includes all real estate transactions from the Boone, Ogle and Winnebago county area and only transactions from that area. The Realtors association figures are just sales that involve a Realtor and the sales can include sales from anywhere, as long as the transaction included a member of the Rockford association.

The big thing missing from the Realtors association data is foreclosures. There are a record number of families losing their houses because they can’t make the payments and when the lending institutions resell thoses properties they rarely use a Realtor.

Not surprisingly, areas all over the Rock River Valley are down in terms of number and in terms of median sales price. There were several bright spots where sale prices increased in the first six months of 2008 compared to 2007. You’ll have to wait and see the story to see where those places were.

Back to my first sentence, if there are things you think we should be tracking and have ideas on how to do so, please email me at agary@rrstar.com. I love numbers.

A rare look at real estate finances

Add comment July 21st, 2008

If there is a group of professionals that like lawsuits as much as attorneys it would have to be journalists.

Especially business journalists.

The beauty of public companies is every three months they tell us how well — or how poorly — they are doing. But the vast majority of companies that we cover are privately owned and don’t have to tell us anything.

Except when those companies become involved in a lawsuit.

Last week Nate Legue wrote about a lawsuit involving Jeff Petry and Frank Wehrstein, the co-owners of Dickerson & Nieman Realtors, the area’s dominant real estate firm.

The suit is interesting just because of the people involved — including Greater Rockford Airport Authority Board Chairman Mike Dunn — but it also gives us a look at Dickerson & Nieman’s finances and hints at how the home sales slowdown is affecting the company.

According to one exhibit, Dickerson & Nieman’s gross revenues grew from $12.6 million in 2003, to $13.6 million in 2004, $14.7 million in 2005 and then hitting $15.3 million in 2006.

Through eight months of 2007, though, the revenues were at $8.6 million, or on pace for $13 million. That’s a generous estimate though. Through August of 2007 home sales were down 16 percent compared to 2006, but in the final four months they fell 25 percent compared to 2006.

The copmany’s net income was taking a hit even before 2007 though. In 2003, Dickerson & Nieman’s net imcome was $1.15 million. That increased to $1.35 million in 2004 and $1.43 million in 2005. In 2006, it fell to $1.18 million and it was $682,000 through August 2007 or on pace for just over $1 million.

With sales down 33 percent in 2008 compared just to 2007, obviously real estate companies — and not just the agents — are taking a hit and now we know, at least in one case, how much.