Blago’s Annual Address Scheduled

1 comment January 28th, 2008

Gov. Blagojevich has scheduled his annual combined State of the State/Budget Address for Feb. 20.

I hear our increasingly reclusive governor will deliver his address from a couch in the basement of his Chicago bungalow. There’s no word yet on whether press or the public will be allowed in to watch.

Just kidding. The governor will deliver his address in the Illinois House to a joint session of the General Assembly, as is traditional.

Over the next couple weeks, we’ll look at some of the challenges facing Illinois, fiscal and otherwise. For starters, here’s some background on bill pressure from a recent report by Comptroller Dan Hynes:

Through the first half of fiscal year 2008, the
state’s cash flow position continued to deteriorate.
At the end of December, the backlog of
unpaid bills in the Comptroller’s Office stood
at $1.720 billion although the office began the
year holding no bills. This time last year
payables totaled $1.336 billion. Just as significantly,
the delay in paying bills was 34 business
days as of December 31st, compared to
only 22 days at this time last year. Both the
backlog volume and the number of days
delayed represent record levels for the midpoint
of the fiscal year.

Blago’s Approval Rating Back Up

Add comment January 28th, 2008

Gov. Blago’s approval rating has bounced back to 42 percent, according to a poll commissioned by the St. Louis Post Dispatch. An associated story is here.

Forty-two percent is not pretty for the second-term Democratic chief executive of an increasingly Democratic state. Still, Blago is now nearly twice as popular as he was three months ago, when his approval rating was in the tank at 23 percent.

No doubt much of the bounce in popularity is due to Blago’s free-rides-for-seniors plan, which he inserted into a mass transit bailout plan via an amendatory veto. He and his taxpayer-funded staff practically beat this plan into the heads of Illinoisans with a full-scale promotional blitz around Illinois.

I’m guessing another factor is at play here, too: Blagojevich and lawmakers have officially left Springfield for the first in a year. Yes, there have been occasional breaks over the last year. But each of those breaks occurred amid gridlock and posturing at the Capitol. Blago spent those breaks parading in front of TV cameras and threatening to call lawmakers back into special session.

The current break, now in its second week, is truly that: A break from the acrimony. It follows closure on a significant matter — how to help Chicago-area mass transit agencies, which for the better part of a year had begged for more state money.

In short, folks appear to be much more fond of their government leaders when they actually accomplish something and then disappear.

Huge Victory for Obama

Add comment January 27th, 2008

After winning Iowa, but losing New Hampshire and Nevada, Barack Obama tonight won South Carolina.

Will State Parties Help in the 69th?

1 comment January 24th, 2008

State party support can make a huge difference in a local legislative race. The state party can send the dollars a candidate needs to buy advertising and the foot soldiers a candidate needs to build an organization.

But there’s also a certain stigma attached to state party support, particularly in the minds of independent voters. They want their local legislator to walk in lockstep with their own values, not with party leaders. A candidate who accepts state party support, and who goes on to win the election, certainly is under pressure to vote with party leadership — at least when it really counts.

Whether and to what extent the Democratic and Republican parties get involved in the race to represent the 69th legislative district, which includes a slice of east Rockford and all of Boone County, certainly will affect the outcome of the race. The district leans Republican. But when Democrat Greg Tuite challenged incumbent Republican Rep. Ron Wait in 2006, he came within just a few points of winning.

Tuite, of Rockford, did not enjoy support from the Illinois Democratic Party in that race. In the summer before the 2006 election, he played down the influence of state party dollars. From the Register Star:

(Tuite) said he is not expecting financial support from the Illinois Democratic Party, and that he got only a few donations from Chicago folks.

“It’s all Rockford people and Belvidere people,” he said, “who feel that they’ve been ignored and underserved.”

But after losing the election, he changed his tone. Also from the Register Star:

Rockford’s Greg Tuite came so close to ousting Belvidere’s Ron Wait, a 22-year incumbent, from the Illinois House.

Tuite was 1,383 votes — 3.5 percentage points — from beating Wait. That’s so close that Tuite on Wednesday was wondering, “What if the Illinois Democratic Party had put dollars behind my campaign?”

House Speaker Michael Madigan controls the Illinois Democratic Party. Madigan opted during the 2006 election to play defense and focus on keeping seats in the House rather than play offense and attempt to gain additional seats. He focused state party dollars on defending incumbents like downstate Rep. Kurt Granberg from GOP attacks.

Tuite wondered whether those dollars would have made a difference in his race:

“If I could have gotten some of that Granberg money — the money that was put into some of those other races — in my race, there might have been a different result,” Tuite said.

Madigan spokesman Steve Brown responded to Tuite at the time:

“I know we were aware of his candidacy. He was a quality candidate. But there is a limited amount of resources, and you’ve got to defend incumbents for starters. So we did.”

Tuite is challenging Wait, of Belvidere, again in this election. On Wednesday, I asked him whether he expected support from Madigan this time around.

“We’ll see,” he said. “I’m not gonna bank on it. You know, my opponent, he had state party support from his party last time. And obviously if that happens again, I would welcome state party support on our side. But I’m going to proceed as if it’s not going to happen.”

Tuite continued, “Obviously, if the Republican Party comes in and dumps a couple hundred thousand dollars into the race, I would appreciate if the Democratic Party would do the same.”

Wait enjoyed support from House GOP Leader Tom Cross’ organization in 2006. I asked him whether he expected the same support — money and staff — this time around.

“I wouldn’t be surprised,” he said. “Usually, they’re here to help incumbents and stuff like that. The question is, Madigan probably will send somebody up to help my opponent this year. So I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see that happen. That usually happens.”

Sieben to retire early, help Bivins UPDATED X2

4 comments January 23rd, 2008

Sen. Todd Sieben said Wednesday that he plans to retire shortly after the Feb. 5 primary election, paving the way for Republican party bosses to fill his seat with Tim Bivins.

Republican Bivins would therefore enter the Nov. 4 general election as the incumbent, potentially giving him a significant edge over Democrat Marty Mulcahey.

Since the Senate seat is held by a Republican, the district’s GOP chairmen get to pick Sieben’s successor. The district covers much of northwestern Illinois, stretching from western Winnebago County through Freeport to Galena and south to Geneseo.

“Certainly, an individual who is an incumbent senator has an advantage in an election,” said Sieben, R-Geneseo. “That’s been proven over and over again.”

Mulcahey said the move smacks of insider, old-school politics — an attitude he claims he would counter as a legislator.

“This falls into that politics as usual, that backroom, you know, cigar mentality of how we do things,” he said.

Sieben noted he’s just doing what Democrats do all the time.

“I learned how to do this from the Democrats,” Sieben said. “This is nothing new in their playbook. This is a typical way that the Democrats would handle the same situation.”

Sieben is retiring after serving more than 21 years in the General Assembly — six in the House and 15 in the Senate.

Mulcahey, the son of former Rep. Dick Mulcahey and a former legislative staffer, works for Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White. He lives in Galena.

Bivins, a retired Lee County sheriff, lives in Dixon. He is excited about Sieben’s move.

“It’s a probably a two-edged sword right now,” he said of the prospect of incumbency. “If we have another year like last year (in Springfield), where the session lasts until August and into September and there’s numerous special sessions, it could be a disadvantage.”

Update 1

The Senate district leans strongly Republican, so this development seems like bad news for Mulcahey. It’s largely rural with scattered urban pockets. In the 2004 presidential race, George W. Bush won 56.2 percent of the vote. Democrat John Kerry won just 43.8 percent.

It’s tough to say at this point whether the November general election will be good for Democrats around Illinois. If this state’s own Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for president, Democrats and independents probably will head to the polls en masse.

On the other hand, all-Democratic control of state government has been nothing short of a trainwreck for a solid year. Party infighting has been so severe and so consistent, it’s hard to imagine that voters won’t unleash some level of anti-Democrat sentiment once they get to the polls.

Then again, Illinois simply is an increasingly Democratic-leaning state. The Democrats control literally every statewide office, as well as both U.S. Senate seats. And it’s hard to imagine the Republicans winning any of those statewide seats back in the next two years. Their own state party infrastructure is in shambles.

UPDATE 2

More from my conversation with Sieben:

“I’ve let it be known to the county chairmen, the eight county chairmen in my Senate district, that my intention is after the primary, after the Feb. 5 primary, that I intend to retire as state senator,” he said.  “Once I do retire, then that obviously creates an opening and my hope is that the county chairmen would then appoint Tim Bivins to complete my term.”

He continued, “Since the office is held by a Republican, the Republican county chairmen are notified of the vacancy and they convene a meeting, elect a chairmen and a secretary, and each county chairmen then casts a weighted vote for a candidate to complete my term.”

Mulcahey surpasses Bivins in campaign dollars

Add comment January 23rd, 2008

Democrat Marty Mulcahey didn’t waste any time catching up with his opponent’s fundraising in the race to represent the northwestern Illinois 45th Senate District.

Mulcahey ended 2007 with$11,205.18 in his campaign fund. However, on Jan. 14 he reported a $10,000 donation from the Northwest Illinois Central Labor Council. If he hasn’t spent that money already, then he has more than his opponent, Tim Bivins. Republican Bivins ended the year with $20,007.88 on hand.

(Mulcahey reported two other contributions since Dec. 31, but he filed those statements on paper. That means I can’t give you those details until tomorrow, when the State Board of Elections opens.) The State Board of Elections just called and said the two reports are blank.

The two men are racing to succeed Sen. Todd Sieben, R-Geneseo, who is not seeking re-election.

Mulcahey, who works for Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White, is the son of former Rep. Dick Mulcahey. He lives in Galena.

Bivins, a retired Lee County sheriff, lives in Dixon.

The 45th Senate District runs from western Winnebago County through Freeport and Galena to the Mississippi River, then south to Geneseo. The district is pictured here in yellow.

Sacia’s Campaign Fund Flush

Add comment January 23rd, 2008

Rep. Jim Sacia, R-Pecatonica, is on a roll with fundraising. He had $64,142.58 on hand on Dec. 31 after raising $25,280.34 and spending $19,501.45 during the semi-annual reporting period.

His larger contributions include:

Sacia has no opponent in the upcoming election.

Steinberg Fires Back at Sacia

Add comment January 23rd, 2008

Remember when Rep. Jim Sacia, R-Pecatonica, practically breathed fire on the House floor over a column authored by Neil Steinberg of the Chicago Sun-Times? If not, start by reading this background.

Well, Steinberg today fired back at Sacia. His column:

“Neil,” a colleague whispered over a crackly cell phone. “You’re being denounced on the floor of the General Assembly. I thought you should know. Jim Sacia is ranting and raving about your column.”

That would be Rep. Jim Sacia (R-Pecatonica, wherever that is). And relax, it’s Springfield. Nothing they do matters. Nobody cares. No one else mentioned Sacia’s comments to me, nor do I expect them to. Speaking to the General Assembly is like shouting down a well.

What got Sacia so worked up was being referred to here as a “hick.”

I’m not sure why he was upset. “Hick” is such a positive, friendly word. In “Hey Country,” Montgomery Gentry sings exuberantly, “He’s a hick, jes’ like me!” They make it sound like a good thing.

Sacia is using the old ploy of complaining about the least objectionable charge. My colleague Eric Zorn, for instance, usually politeness incarnate, called Springfield “a dysfunctional cesspool.” Yet I don’t expect Sacia to rise to deny that. Or if I call legislators there, oh, for instance, “invertebrate, ineffectual lapdogs licking the boots of their autocratic leaders,” my bet is, he’d be mum about that, too. And why not? A drier, more factual journalistic description can’t be imagined.

I just talked to Sacia. He’s laughing out loud.

Tuite Besting Wait in Fundraising

Add comment January 23rd, 2008

Democrat Greg Tuite has roughly three times as much money in his campaign fund as Rep. Ron Wait, R-Belvidere. Tuite challenged Wait in 2006, nearly taking him out.

From the State Board of Elections, here are the vote totals from 2006:

COUNTY WAIT TUITE
BOONE 8091 7266
DeKALB 1702 1215
WINNEBAGO 10689 10618
Totals 20482 19099

This year, Tuite is challenging Wait again.

Tuite had $62,825.81 on hand on Dec. 31 after raising $70,504.22 and spending $8,980.32. The cash includes a $50,000 loan that Tuite gave to his own campaign.

Wait, by contrast, had just $20,978.48 on hand after raising $20,600.00 and spending $13,927.46.

Winters v. Little v. Woods UPDATED X1

1 comment January 23rd, 2008

Rep. Dave Winters, R-Shirland, finished last year with $28,011.90 on hand after raising $27,952.81 and spending $21,198.03. Winters faces two challengers in the Nov. 4 general election, so watch for him to step up fundraising in the coming year.

Winters’ biggest contributions include:

The challengers are Democrat Clint Little, a Loves Park alderman, and Gerry Woods of the Green Party.

Little has not registered his campaign fund with the State Board of Elections. He told me Wednesday that he will not start fundraising until after the Feb. 5 primary election.

“I’m going to start everything after the primary,” he said. “And even that’s going to be limited (fundraising) because I’m going to watch who I take money from. I think that’s half of the problem, half of what’s wrong with our government as a whole. I haven’t really been doing a lot with the lobbyists or different organizations.”

He added, “I usually raise a lot of the funds out of my own pocket. I’m going to be very selective who I take money from.”

Woods also has not registered a campaign fund with the state. I could not reach Woods.

UPDATE 1

Winters responded to Little’s fundraising plan: “That’s good to hear. We hadn’t heard much out of him.”