Will Primary Turnout Forecast the General Election?

January 29th, 2008 at 10:56am Andrea Zimmermann

This could be the Democrats’ year.

An article in today’s New York Times lays all the numbers out on the table, and at first blush, the figures seem to foretell the story to come.

Even the Democratic fundraising numbers are impressive – particularly because the GOP traditionally fares much better in the money race.

But then there is this pesky little paragraph in the Times piece:

Republican Party analysts also note that both Ronald Reagan and the senior George Bush were elected after Republican primaries in which turnout was lower than in the Democratic primaries.

As Illinois Democratic Party spokesman Steve Brown said in this Peoria Journal-Star piece, “It’s a neck-and-neck situation. The clearest indication will be, ‘Where are we Feb. 6?’”

Entry Filed under: national politics