Recession? A New “Feel Good” Index
July 22nd, 2008 at 01:42pm Bob Trojan
I’ve recently written about my observations regarding cars and truck traffic on I-90; then I expanded it to include some other factors that I noted regarding the economy, especially the local area. This morning, it occurred to me that there were other notable indicators that would indicate to me that our local economy is in better shape than we see in the media. So I’ve developed an unscientific approach and will call it the “Feel Good” Index. Here’s what I’ve seen and what’s been reported:
1. Car and Truck traffic….heavy on a sample of three different days and times.
2. Movie Box Office receipts…a record last weekend; both Showcase 16’s sold out on Friday.
3. Retail sales seem to be holding up, e.g. Starbucks, Best Buy still busy and reports from the IMF that say the consumer is still spending. Oh, yes, they also said that the rebate checks are working. Funny, I didn’t see this on national TV.
4. Local Tourism spending in 2007 is 5% ahead of 2006. It was the highest since the 2001 attacks. With the floods causing closure of SportsCore I, it may be difficult to predict revenues in 2008 on a comparable basis, but the trend was right.
5. Air traffic at the Rockford airport; slightly down from 2007 in June: 18,044 in ‘08 and 18,290 in ‘07…but +16% ahead of last year on a Year to Date basis.  Let’s see, that means the roads and air fields must be crowded?
6. Record sales and profits for Apple. Boy, do we love to buy those iPods and iPhone 3G’s!! I guess we call these things “necessities of life” nowadays.
Now to figure out how to make a number out of these!
I’m sure my index won’t earn me a Noble Peace Prize for technical brilliance, but maybe we can develop this idea further and stop wringing our hands at all the negative headlines!! Manufacturers have enough to worry about.
Entry Filed under: Economy
6 Comments Add your own
1. Curt Sanders | July 22nd, 2008 at 2:21 pm
I have to agree with Bob….there is TONS of economic activity that isnt being reoprted by the major media and the local news departments can only do so much. A recession is when you neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. Im just sayin…
2. bob | July 22nd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
take a look at number 2. Its ShowPlace 16 not ShowCase and there is only one. in Machesney Park its called Showplace 14
3. Leatherneck | July 22nd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Well stated my friend, You hit the nail right on the head. I am glad that somebody in the media sees all the evidence. I have been reciting all these types of things for several months whenever someone says that we are in a recession …because the evidence suggests otherwise.
4. Robert Trojan | July 23rd, 2008 at 6:20 am
Let’s add the following as reported today in the RRS:
“The number of vehicles registered in the Rock River Valley was UP 1.1% in April compared by a surprising jump in sales of new cars andtrucks. It marked the first time since December 2006 that vehicle registrations were up year-over-year”.
Somehow, I have to figure out how to put all these into an Index number, but for now, I’m off to get me a Starbucks!
5. Nate Legue | July 29th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
No. 2 works as an economic marker, but not the way you’re reading it, Bob. Movie ticket sales are widely viewed as an inverse indicator for the economy and correlate with recession. We go see movies when we’re depressed about our economic prospects — this is a phenomenon that the National Association of Theater Owners says has been going for the last five recessions.
Here’s an AP article from earlier this year about it.
6. Bob Trojan | July 30th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Nate;
Thanks for your feedback and the interesting article. While I don’t doubt the “escape to the movies” analysis, when I see families at Showcase paying $7 each, and walking in with large bushels of popcorn and gallon jugs of Coke/Pepsi, I gotta wonder…it’s gotta cost them a lot!
Even so, with all the other spending taking place, I have to wonder if they are concerned about the “recession” I still see watering holes around Rockford seeming to be doing OK. I would have thought consumers would be doing more at home to save on gas and food bills. And don’t forget the run on iPod Phone 3G’s!
The article refers to “employers shedding workers….” and “consumers reeling…” Well it seems to me that this is a bucket approach analysis. Not all employers are shedding and not all consumers are reeling! Evidence my first posting!
Thanks again.
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