Are We Coming Out of Recession?
Add comment June 21st, 2009
I’m predicting that we are. Why? I have 3 leading indicators that tell me , that’s why. And they’re based on my experience.
The first, is the advertising projects for new consumer products. Usually when business starts heading down, one of the first cost cuts is advertising. Why spend new money when consumers start to pull in their spending. Conversely, when they think their markets are picking up, they start with new advertising, brochures, etc.
Second, after all the manufacturing slowdowns, factory close-downs, short hours, etc. this will cause many of shops to simply stop buying or investing, even for normal maintenance. But once manufacturers realize that inventories are reduced and now its time to replenish inventory or crank up steel, castings, etc. then they will start buying again. Hence, my second indicator.
Lastly, as the auto industry, worldwide, starts to get sorted out, all suppliers, direct and indirect, will start to gain more confidence and start to invest in new equipment, causing the usual ripple effect through the pipelines of supply.
Good analysis” I hope so!
Will it stick? Watch the news in 2-3 months when the compilers of economic data verify my forecast.

