A snap shot from the NTMA quarterly News You Can Use
Add comment November 1st, 2009
NTMA Releases Fall 2009 Business / Customer Market Forecast Report – Signs Point to Slow Business Recovery for Member Companies
As the fourth quarter begins, there continue to be signs that the economy has bottomed out and is heading toward a recovery – albeit a very slow recovery for NTMA member companies.
There is expectation that this recovery, especially in the automotive industry, will be slow. The automotive industry, the largest single market for NTMA member products and services, is, in the fourth quarter of 2009, drastically different than that of fourth quarter 2008. Yet there are signs of future growth. After a tumultuous ten months, several vehicle manufacturers appear ready to release a number of new programs – meaning that the tooling industry could soon be overwhelmed with new orders.
Despite the above, there is concern as to whether the drastically smaller domestic tooling industry will be capable of handling the volume of the soon to be released new programs. There is also concern that much of this new tooling might be sourced, especially by GM, directly to low cost countries.
The commercial aerospace sector has held up relatively well in this severe downturn. However orders for new planes are well behind 2008 orders and indicate possible weakness for NTMA members serving this market in the next few years. The general aviation sector has not held-up nearly as well and there are signals suggesting that volume will be reduced in the next few years.
Industry projections for 2009 have been revised somewhat – tools, dies and fixtures are now expected to be down 60% for the year and the machining sector forecasts are also down from the previous NTMA projections. The latest projections for those special tooling and machining sectors tracked by NTMA are as follows:
Tools & Dies  -60%
Molds   -45%
Special Machines  -55%
Precision Machining  -40%
Aerospace Machining & Fabrication  -20%
NTMA’s quarterly Business/Customer Market Forecast Reports provide valuable insights and forecasts regarding the major sectors of the U.S. contract special tooling and machining industry as well as its leading customer markets. A benefit of membership. www.ntma.org
