Posts filed under 'Uncategorized'
November 1st, 2009
NTMA Releases Fall 2009 Business / Customer Market Forecast Report – Signs Point to Slow Business Recovery for Member Companies
As the fourth quarter begins, there continue to be signs that the economy has bottomed out and is heading toward a recovery – albeit a very slow recovery for NTMA member companies.
There is expectation that this recovery, especially in the automotive industry, will be slow. The automotive industry, the largest single market for NTMA member products and services, is, in the fourth quarter of 2009, drastically different than that of fourth quarter 2008. Yet there are signs of future growth. After a tumultuous ten months, several vehicle manufacturers appear ready to release a number of new programs – meaning that the tooling industry could soon be overwhelmed with new orders.
Despite the above, there is concern as to whether the drastically smaller domestic tooling industry will be capable of handling the volume of the soon to be released new programs. There is also concern that much of this new tooling might be sourced, especially by GM, directly to low cost countries.
The commercial aerospace sector has held up relatively well in this severe downturn. However orders for new planes are well behind 2008 orders and indicate possible weakness for NTMA members serving this market in the next few years. The general aviation sector has not held-up nearly as well and there are signals suggesting that volume will be reduced in the next few years.
Industry projections for 2009 have been revised somewhat – tools, dies and fixtures are now expected to be down 60% for the year and the machining sector forecasts are also down from the previous NTMA projections. The latest projections for those special tooling and machining sectors tracked by NTMA are as follows:
Tools & Dies -60%
Molds -45%
Special Machines -55%
Precision Machining -40%
Aerospace Machining & Fabrication -20%
NTMA’s quarterly Business/Customer Market Forecast Reports provide valuable insights and forecasts regarding the major sectors of the U.S. contract special tooling and machining industry as well as its leading customer markets. A benefit of membership. www.ntma.org
October 27th, 2009
Since our area is one of the largest Aerospace Clusters in the USA—yes we are! The Aerospace Standard is an issue for many readers. For over a year they have said changes are coming. I am sure you have noticed increased audit days required for your company when you are scheduling annual and recertification audits. Often from (1) day to (3) days, thus triple the costs! I disagree with this but that is another discussion. Below is an update as to the status of the next revision level for AS9100. Some very different requirements are being put on auditors. There is already a shortage of AS auditors. The fact that Big Wind and other emerging markets are requiring this level of certification and as companies try to scramble to participate in the more “healthy” Aerospace Market it should be interesting to see how this all plays out. Going straight to the issue that is on many people’s minds: When will we be able to make the certification transition to Revision C of AS9100? The answer to the question is not fully known.
Before any of us can be certified to AS9100C, our aerospace auditors must undergo recognized training and pass a test to perform audits against that standard. The IAQG sanctioned training for auditors, has not been developed yet. Actually, at this moment, the IAQG is deciding on who will be the organization awarded with the contract to develop the training.
A pivotal issue for the training is also the release of AS9101 Revision D. As previously communicated, the next version of 9101 will be a significant departure from the current version of the document. The upcoming 9101D document will no longer be a checklist, as the current one is, but rather a standard providing both guidance and requirements on how to plan, execute and report audits performed to the 9100, 9110 and 9120 standards. It contains some very interesting concepts, such as requirements for auditors to assess and report not only on the degree of conformity to requirements, but also on the effectiveness of the processes in reaching certain objectives. Auditors will have to carefully evaluate the process and report the results via a specific form, the PEAR form (Process Effectiveness Assessment Report). Below is an excerpt of the latest DRAFT of the 9101D guidance/requirements:
4.1.2.5 Process Performance and Effectiveness
The audit team should audit processes to sufficient depth and detail to evaluate if the organization’s processes are capable of meeting planned results and performance levels, including applicable customer specific targets.
The audit team should evaluate, as appropriate, that processes:
a) are identified and appropriately defined;
b) are sequenced and interactions are defined;
c) have process input/outputs, activities, and resources defined;
d) have responsibilities assigned and responsible functions identified;
e) have relevant process controls defined;
f) have the availability of resources and information required to operate and support associated activities, including appropriate training and competency of personnel;
g) are monitored, measured, and analyzed against planned results (determination of process effectiveness);
h) have actions implemented to achieve planned results and to promote continual improvement; and
i) are effective in achieving the desired results (e.g., verify performance information available - percentage of nonconforming parts/products, percentage OTD).
9101D will also require auditors to gather and use data about customer satisfaction and the percentage of the aerospace business as relevant input, as part of the audit planning process. OASIS feedback entries about the organization’s performance will also be used as part of the audit planning process.
Once again, an excerpt of the DRAFT of 9101D states: The audit planning should take into account:
a) the scope and complexity of the organization’s quality management system;
b) the processes of the organization, including their sequence and interactions;
c) the criticality of products and processes;
d) product related safety issues (e.g., airworthiness issues, reporting to customer and/or authorities);
e) results of internal audits;
f) previous audit findings;
g) the KPIs and trends for quality and OTD;
h) previous management review results;
i) customer satisfaction and complaints log, including feedback requests received by the CB (e.g., items identified through OASIS feedback process);
j) customer specific, statutory, and regulatory quality management system requirements;
k) performance data available from the customers;
l) changes to organization (e.g., structure; facilities; business strategy; processes; technologies; a review of requirements from new aviation, space, and defense customers); and
m) the audit team member required background/experience and desired competencies.
The audit team leader shall use organization’s customer feedback requests, including those received through OASIS, to assist with audit planning for surveillance and re-certification audits. The audit activities shall be prioritized based upon performance data for business risks that can impact the customer (i.e., customer concerns, customer special statuses) and on low performing processes.
As an input into the audit planning process, the audit team leader shall obtain information from the organization regarding their customers on the proportion of aviation, space, and defense business each customer represents, based on their approximate percentage of business. The audit team leader shall ensure that the amount of audit time planned on auditing any one customer’s specific quality management system requirements is consistent (approximately) with the proportion of aviation, space, and defense business each customer represents (e.g., customer X may only have 20% of the business so do not spend 80% of the time verifying customer X’s specific quality management system requirements).
So, as you can see, the revision of the 9101 document will introduce some significant heightened expectations for the audits conducted under the ICOP Scheme. Is Rockford part of the discussion?
October 18th, 2009
The American Free Enterprise. Dream Big campaign is one of the most important and necessary initiatives in the Chamber’s nearly 100-year history. As a nation, we face major policy challenges–but none greater or more important than reviving the economy, restoring the 7 million jobs lost to the current recession, and creating the 13 million more jobs that will be needed over the next decade. A recent survey by the U.S. Chamber found that while people support free enterprise, they do not clearly see how it benefits them as individuals. Respondents also expressed concern about the future of the free enterprise system and believe that the private sector will and should take the lead in the nation’s number one challenge–job creation.
At the U.S. Chamber, we believe that the values of individual initiative, hard work, freedom of choice, and the free exchange of trade, capital, and ideas can lead America back to prosperity. Only free enterprise will create the innovation, the opportunities, and the jobs our nation needs. That is why we are launching this campaign. You can sign up … here
September 27th, 2009
Today was a great day in Rockford when the Lincoln Bicentennial Commission of Winnebago County unveiled “Iron Determination” a Lincoln Sculpture by John W. McClarey and cast by a local craftsman (Adams) in nearby Mt. Morris, IL. Christiansen says this bust, in the Courthouse Square, is our connection to Lincoln and the powerful things he did while in office as our 16th President. Today was full of history about the times Lincoln was in our region and how he loved the Rock River Valley but more than that how he is the only President to hold a patent for his own invention. The Honorable Scott H Christiansen so cleverly wove his comments to include our rich manufacturing history and to speak of how rich it will be in the future. I hope someone makes his comments available past today as they were excellent! In the meantime slip downtown and be inspired by this man who, years after his death, points us to the future and the success it can hold.
September 25th, 2009
Keeping up with the news these days seems all BAD! Success stories during this economy are important! People who are having success need to step up and tell us….do you have a success story? Maybe it is that you are still here and have cash flow. Maybe it is that your back log is filling up! Maybe you have made changes that improve your out put. Maybe you have gotten a new big customer…..on and on! Too shy to share? At least be sure to look in the mirror and tell your self your success story today! Entrepreneurs can do well in this economy. Things are picking up…think positive thoughts….keep on keeping on and ENJOY!
September 9th, 2009
I wish I would have taken two weeks off….would people have waited?
I have just come back from my 2 week vacation at my beach house…no email, no voice mail, ,no twitter, facebook, or cell phones- only lots of beach, family time, novels, food, fireworks (is there an iPhone app for that?) and campfires (I know there is an app for that!). While I was away from business I learned 5 things this summer:
1. It is possible to go on vacation and let go of your business obligations temporarily. Sure, I came back to 3400 emails, but no one died, no one went out of business and nothing happened that I could not work on this week. Give yourself a break. No matter how fast we think that business moves (which is does), things can and will wait for you. Let go!
2. The best communication is still face to face for people. I love technology like social media, email, phone calls, Skype, Twitter and Facebook but guess what? Humans still communicated best face to face. On vacation, while family and friends visited our beach house, I was able to have extended conversations or play games with people without having to get to the next meeting or obligation. This allowed me to deepen our relationship together and it felt much more rewarding that 1 hour meetings with agendas.
3. Reading novels about zombies, aliens and ghosts are good for the brain. I read alot of business magazines and books at the office and home. Reading these types of novels allowed my mind to relax and expand so new business ideas came up that I never would have thought of …btw, I read Patient Zero (Thanks, Chris Brogan), Treason (what if you morphed into a woman?), Good People (What would you do if you found $370,000) and Ghost Road Blues (Halloween will never be the same)
4. Work by task, not time. Typically, I accomplish a business task in a certain amount of time. This is necessary to meet deadlines and meet all my business obligations. On vacation at the beach house, there were no time pressures so I was able to work on a task until it was done (Or I got bored of it). This felt much more rewarding. I accomplished the tasks more completely and enjoyably.
5. Even on vacation, things change daily. The weather at Lake Michigan was not the best. Temperatures varied from 37 degrees (ouch!,see photo above) to 80 degrees. As a result, everyday the lake (rough, calm and flat), the beach (hot, windy or wet) and sunset (yellow, orange, fireball and foggy) were different. The best skill that we can develop anywhere is to adapt for change. What is your plan if it is sunny, cloudy or raining? Does it change or can it stay the same?
barrymoltz.com lots of interesting thoughts on business!
July 14th, 2009
NIU’s Promod Vohra hosted a nice event on June 10th — asking the question “What do you want us to do for you?” He told us about the support they have to offer in addition to the engineers they train. His department wants to partner with local manufacturers to encourage growth in High End Technology Innovation—and gave several examples of success. They want to help our companies save money by being more efficient or getting the expertise of a trained engineer and his faculty support with the EIR or Engineer in Residence program. They have graduates, graduate students, interns available to better our operations. They encourage the next generation workforce with Project Lead the way for High School students. In this down economy don’t forget to partner with our local University to better your company and move forward your innovative idea. The local contact is C.S. Reddy at the Eigerlab or Promod Vohra in Dekalb.
On Monday the Eigerlab opened the John Lundin Training Center at the Eigerlab campus. A very nice event that honored the NIMS Graduates. This is a new certification for machinists that will take these graduates along way in their career. Of course, it is being offered in Rockford Illinois, where we value manufacturing!
The Rock River Valley Tooling and Machining Association (RRVTMA) formerly RTMA is offering an incentive program for hiring a first year apprentice—get the offer letter from akayebk@comcast.net. Looking toward your company’s future—this is a way that you can move forward with a lower cost!
Next week is the WOTM Manufacturing Camp it is open to 7th, 8th and 9th Graders contact bbishop@natool.com if you want to send your student for a great week of fun and learning about manufacturing!
I also got to hear a speaker from Ford. They have been a successful automotive player in this interesting economy. I didn’t know that 1 Car = 7 jobs in the USA. But what we count on with those 7 jobs is how they interact with our communities…big or small. Business works successfully when it has an outward focus to the community. Thinking especially of the impact of our local dealers…but optimism about trucking being up the last three months as a sign things are picking up. Also, a reminder that it all starts with the customer…figure out what they want, make them feel like they are being taken care of!
June 6th, 2009
Two things happened at the Thursday night RTMA Graduation…11 men of all ages got their Journeymen Papers. The MC told these men that “no matter what happened to them in life, no one could take away the valuable skill they had acquired.” This happen by thousands of hours of OJT that took place at (6) sponsor companies and 680 hours of classroom time. It is a 4 year program that can take 4 or more years to complete. 31 other men are in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year of this program now. It is exciting that this is going on in our community. If you have a son or daughter who need a skill for life be sure to check into this program!
The speaker for the group was our hard working Mayor, Larry Morrissey. Honestly he was one of the main reasons I attended. What would he say in this difficult time for manufacturing!!? I have to hand it to him that he has a plan, he is working it and he is STILL OPTIMISTC! Reminding us the future of the Rock River Valley is still in the hands of those of us who love it—and many of us who are deeply involved with manufacturing. He reminded the RTMA to continue to educate so that our area could stay strong in manufacturing and give young people an opportunity to have a future. Partner with educators and each other to help to encourage this education. He is proud to have this skill set in his region and wants it to continue strong.
Take away: each attendee has to think….what am I doing to continue to help make that happen?
May 27th, 2009
Credit Card company effects Small Business—I am sure all of you have had some contact with your credit card companies in these “interesting” financial times! The following article tells about Advanta Credit Cards. They are one of the largest small business credit card companies….I have to admit they are the primary card for my company. It was pretty surprising, yesterday, to find out that everyone’s card won’t work after this week-end! Just another aggravation to small business! After 18 years of use, in three days, we get to remember every account it is attached to. Sigh! I am one of 1 Million small companies having to do this this week….I guess I am in great company!?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_FhoI2A4ZsM
April 10th, 2009
180 people from many regions and countries gathered to share experience, fears, facts, and dreams about going global. One local company I spoke with is putting a facility in India. I wondered if he had spoken to a Machine Shop I knew had done that—he had never even heard of this company (maybe we should know our town before we look outside—but that is another topic!) I will try to put them together–one type of benefit from Go Global II. I met two regional companies that were not aware of what we could offer–direct sales to a regional partner, another benefit from Go Global. Lots of time to interact with Regional Economic Development and support entities so I could be sure I was interacting with all they have to offer my company—one more benefit of attending Go Global II. Great Speakers at the break out sessions and the Keynotes or Luncheon Speakers made it worth attending all by itself! Yesterday Dr. Tanuja Singh, Director of Marketing department at NIU spoke about Cultural differences between all global market places. She used humor and statistics to help us to understand how important it is to research where we are going to find work/resources and who is coming to see us! Below is a web site that she sited as very informative and useful. Add it to your go global tool box! I contend that small company to large OEM has cultural differences. Early on in my manufacturing venture a mentor from a large company came along, she and I have enjoyed learning about the different cultures we operate in. It has been a treasure of information as I have dealt with large potential customers. This web-site could be that for you as you look on the horizon and GO GLOBAL!
http://www.geert-hofstede.com/
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