September 3rd, 2010 09:48am
Sean F. Driscoll
Private employers added 67,000 jobs in August, and hiring figures for June and July were revised upward, but the nation’s unemployment rate still ticked up to 9.6 percent, the Labor Department said this morning.
Employment service firms added 17,000 positions as companies tried to meet their demand with temporary help, but both manufacturing industry — largely fueled by temporary layoffs in the auto industry — lost positions for the first time this year.
The disparity between more jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate comes from more than half a million Americans rejoining the labor force in August. When someone is unemployed and not looking for work, they stop being counted in the unemployment rate. An increase in job seekers suggests more jobless are feeling optimistic about their chances at finding a job, given the slight but steady growth in positions. Private companies have added about 763,000 jobs, a small fraction of the 8.4 million that were lost in 2008 and 2009.
State data for August unemployment is scheduled to be released Sept. 16, with local data out Sept. 23.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
September 3rd, 2010 07:00am
Sean F. Driscoll
Today we’ll get a look at the first round of August unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to IHS Global Insight, an international economic research firm, analysts expect the national rate to increase from 9.5 percent to 9.6 percent, and for nonfarm payroll to decrease by 105,000 workers. They do believe private payrolls will increase by 30,000, but that’s somewhat inflated by the end of a construction strike that accounted for about 10,000 workers.
Otherwise, I’ll be working on several stories for the Labor Day weekend, including a look at the effectiveness of sales tax holidays and a story about the difficulty finding qualified workers for temporary manufacturing jobs.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
September 2nd, 2010 10:33am
Sean F. Driscoll
In the news today is a pair of economic stories that give some insight into the churn of the employment situation.
Jobless claims were down for the second week in a row, defying analysts’ expectations of another gain. The 472,000 claims was down 6,000 from last week’s revised total. Although claims remain far too high to be at a healthy level, the dip is nonetheless a positive sign that the languid economy may not be sparking new rounds of layoffs.
Workplace productivity had its biggest drop in four years and labor costs increased, suggesting employers may have reached the limit of how much they can produce with their pared-down staffs.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
September 1st, 2010 07:15am
Sean F. Driscoll
With eight million jobs lost since the start of the Great Recession, it’s no wonder that the plight of those who have held on to their positions since 2007 hasn’t had much attention. But the economic downturn has hit their paychecks in a way that will have repercussions for years to come.
That’s the conclusion of the Economic Policy Institute, which in an interesting new study looks at data from 2000 to 2007 to show the wage growth had been suppressed long before the downturn started. As productivity soared during that time period, especially after the 2001 recession, wage growth didn’t keep up.
(Click to enlarge)
That’s contrary to general economic assumptions that more productivity drives up wages, too. The study notes this is the first business cycle on record in which wages were lower at the end of the period than at the beginning.
An interesting note, also: the wage trend has been harder on men than women. To quote:
Men saw a decline in nominal wage growth—in the first year of the downturn, from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2008, men’s wages growth was at 5.3% and, in the most recent data, from the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2010, it was at -1.3%. Women’s wage growth dropped from 5.2% to 3.7% over the same time period. Men at every education level experienced the deceleration in wage growth, while the results for women were more volatile.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
August 31st, 2010 01:22pm
Sean F. Driscoll
Most states and local governments had fewer employees in 2009 than the previous year, according to data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Local units of government (including cities, villages, townships, counties, etc.) in 30 states plus the District of Columbia shed employees last year, with Maine dropping the biggest percentage of their employees at 8.29 percent. Twenty states had net growth of employees, with South Dakota tops with a 12.74 percent jump.
In the chart above, you can see Illinois actually beat the national average, with about 2.5 percent, or 13,000 full-time equivalent employees, dropping off local government payrolls in 2009.
August 31st, 2010 10:50am
Sean F. Driscoll
Consumer confidence improved slightly in August, but the level still remains far below what’s considered healthy in the midst of continued job worries and uncertainty.
The Associated Press reports the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 53.5 in August. It takes a reading of 90 or above to indicate a healthy economy, a level not seen since the Great Recession began in December 2007. The index measures how Americans are feeling about business conditions and the job market over the next six months.
Other stories on my radar this morning include this piece from Stateline.org reviewing the investment portfolios of 20 public pension plans (not including any in Illinois, alas). The analysis shows double-digit investment gains in fiscal year 2010, but all is not rosy. A flattening recovery and record losses last year are still putting many funds in negative territory in the long haul.
check out this USA Today story underscoring the risk of borrowing from your 401(k) to make ends meet. A record number of people took hardship loans from their plans in the last quarter, according to Fidelity Investments, but the loans are difficult to come by and lined with peril, including taxes and penalties if you don’t repay the money.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
August 31st, 2010 07:00am
Sean F. Driscoll
For this weekend, I’m doing a story inspired by a Challenger, Gray & Christmas study showing that on several fronts, our job recovery is stronger now than it has been in the past two recessions.
The pace of layoffs, the unemployment rate and job creation are all rebounding quite nicely, said Challenger chief exec John Challenger, clouded by the fact that we’re in a much deeper hole than we’ve seen in decades.
It sure doesn’t feel like it, however — unemployment is hovering near 15 percent locally and has been on the rise in Rockford, despite other positive job news. Other economic factors, like spending and income levels, aren’t showing much improvement. So why the disconnect? Probably because this recession has behaved like no recession on record, and neither is the recovery. But I’ll see what the experts have to say and report back this week.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
August 30th, 2010 12:42pm
Sean F. Driscoll
The Workforce Connection is marking Workforce Development Week with a pair of workshops for job seekers.
The first workshop, “Job Search Tips for a Tough Job Market,” will be held at 11 a.m. Wednesday at The Workforce Connection, 303 N. Main St., room 220.
The second workshop will acquaint job seekers with a new computer program, Job Finder, that’s available in The Workforce Connection’s resource rooms in Rockford and Belvidere. The session is at 1 p.m. in room 305 at The Workforce Connection.
Both sessions are open to the public. Reservations are required by calling 815-395-6638.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
August 30th, 2010 10:41am
Sean F. Driscoll
Illinois’ subpar bond rating is costing taxpayers $550 million a year, according to Chicago-based nonprofit group the Civic Federation, and promises to cost us much more as finances get worse and the need to borrow increases.
According to this story in the Chicago Sun-Times, the state has borrowed $9.6 billion since September 2009, the second-largest borrowing spree in state history. The most borrowed during any 12-month period in Illinois history came under former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who OK’d a $10 billion borrowing plan in 2003 to shore up the state’s underfunded retirement systems. With pension borrowing all but a certainty this year, it’s not impossible to imagine 2010 borrowing to be a contender for No. 1.
Elsewhere in the news, consumer spending was up 0.4 percent in July, the fastest pace in four months and a welcome respite from three stagnant months. But high unemployment is not helping expectations stay positive for the rest of 2010.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
August 30th, 2010 07:00am
Sean F. Driscoll
The summer hiring season has been particularly good to the local job market, which has shown growth despite an increase in the unemployment rate. But what’s to come in the next three months as we wind down our seasonal hiring spree?
If past performance is any indicator, it will be a bit of a roller coaster. Today, I’m looking at 30 years of unemployment data in August, September and October to see where we’re likely to end up when summer is in the books. (I blogged about the issue here.)
We’ll also get some new employment data this week, as U.S. figures for August will be released Friday. Two rounds of productivity data are scheduled to be released as well.
Sean F. Driscoll on Insight
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