Close, close, close as Super Tuesday looms

February 3rd, 2008 at 05:11pm Chuck Sweeny

As the final countdown to Super Tuesday begins, several polls show a close race in the Democratic Party between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. California is tied between the two, and the Los Angeles Times is reporting that pro-Clinton forces are engaged in a “push polling” effort. These are calls that sound like public opinion surveys at first, but then the poll taker begins asking negative questions like, “If you knew candidate A never repaid his library fines would you you still be inclined to vote for him?”

The trend shows Obama is rapidly closing the gap with Clinton in many of the 22  states having primaries or caucuses on Tuesday. But will he close fast enough?  I think the advantage still has to go to Clinton, but it all depends on turnout. She has older, veteran voters who will turn out no matter what; Obama’s voters tend to be younger, some of whom have never voted before. We’ll see if there’s a youth surge or not. I don’t think the Democratic nomination will be wrapped up on Tuesday. This fight could go on until the convention in Denver.

Republicans, however, seem to be coalescing around John McCain, although the party’s conservative base doesn’t really like him. McCain’s been behaving a little too confident for my liking, and Romney has ALL THAT MONEY. Still, I think McCain will do well Tuesday, but not quite as well as the people in my business have been predicting. Romney’s not out of this yet, and Mike Huckabee’s eventual support for one or the other — probably McCain — could be key to this race.

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