It’s almost over ….

Add comment October 30th, 2008

 It’s almost over. The world-changing (add your hype here) election of 2008 is already underway, what with early-voting allowing people to go vote and turn off all the media coverage, campaign commercials, throw away the handouts.

Who will win? Polls are still showing Obama with a lead, although it’s been shrinking, as I told you it would.

The outcome, as I see it, depends on these factors:

* What the  undecided voters do on Nov. 4. If the undecideds, perhaps 8 percent of voters,  break for McCain — and the McCain campaign believes they will — it could be enough to put McCain in the White House. However, the Pew Center’s Andy Kohut says undecideds probably won’t save the day for McCain.

* What the “protest” vote does. Will Bob Barr on the right and Ralph Nader on the left, take significant numbers of votes away from McCain and Obama to make the difference in key states?

* Whose voters turn out. Will the huge Obama campaign, with thousands of paid staffers and tens of thousands more volunteers, get out its voters on election day in record numbers? Having had experience in a Chicago-based state campaign, (for Mike Bakalis in 1970, for college credit at the University of Illinois at Chicago) I recognize the Obama campaign. It’s Elections 101; identify your voters and make sure you get them to the polls. This is tedious, not glamorous at all, but it works. It’ll be interesting to see if the Obamacrats can make this kind of ground campaign work nationwide. If they can, he wins.

* Whose voters turn out , Part 2. McCain, who has not made a positive case for himself, has relied on a negative campaign based on raising the fear level about Obama. This is aided by surrogates through viral e-mails, by the all day, all night Mainstream Conservative Media, which owns AM radio, Fox News and the right wing portion of the blogosphere. McCain has no ground army of volunteers anywhere near Obama’s huge forces, but older Republicans are much more reliable voters than Democrats. We’ll see whether McCain-Palin can scrare ‘em to the polls in high enough numbers to beat Obama’s precinct army.

* Will the vaunted “youth vote” finally show up? Every four years they’ve talked a great game, but they don’t bother to turn up on Election Day.

On Election night, we’ll know whether we’re in for a long evening in front of the TV by what happens in key, eastern states like Virginia, the Carolinas, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Don’t hold your breath expecting Florida to come in early — they’re still learning to count. If Obama wins thekey,  early eastern states, especially Virginia and Pennsylvania, he’s probably got the election. If it’s a mixed bag, or very close, put on some coffee.

Tuite, Wait race in 69th Illinois House race: KaChing, KaChing, KaChing

1 comment October 30th, 2008

In the 69th Illinois House race, Democrat Greg Tuite is raking in the greenbacks. Here are the latest reports from the state Board of Elections. When you see a $10,000 donatin from I.P.A.C.E., that’s the political action committee of the Illinois Education Association, one of the two, big teachers unions in the state:

Here are some more Tuite contributions:

And here are more:

On Oct. 23, Tuite’s campaign reported these donations:

And here’s a whopper:

Ron Wait, the incumbent Republican facing Tuite, is really raking in the dough as Illinois Republicans try to save him. All these donations were reported to the state on Oct. 28:

And here are some more late breaking Wait donations:

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Christiansen cash register: Ring, ring, ring, ring.

1 comment October 30th, 2008

In the Winnebago County Board chairman’s race, Chairman Scott Christiansen, a Republican, is raking in the cash despite the fact that his Democratic opponent Paul Gorski, a County Board member, has still not even raised the $3,000 required to file a report with the state board of elections.

Here are late-breaking contributions to Christiansen’s  campaign, reported Oct. 28:

And these were reported on Oct. 24:

And on Oct. 21, these contributions were reported by Christiansen:

Late cash flowing into campaigns for Prorok, Bruscato

Add comment October 30th, 2008

Some big, last minute cash is flowing into Chuck Prorok’s campaign for Winnebago County state’s attorney. Campaign disclosure reports of contributions over $500 show these contributions made to the Republican on Oct. 27:

And this one from Oct. 24:

Meanwhile, late breaking contributions to Democratic candidate Joe Bruscato include:

and

Obama-McCain race now a tie — I think McCain has the advantage

4 comments October 28th, 2008

John McCain is, as I predicted, closing the gap fast and I now think the race between him and Obama is dead even. The Gallup Poll shows it 49-47 for Obama, which is a tie.

What’s working? The argument that Obama will raise your taxes and give your money to welfare bums. The argument that Obama is a dangerous leftwinger whose agenda is anti-American.

Question is, will this have enough of an effect to turn a poorly run McCain campaign around just enough to put McCain in the White House?

I now think that it can..

Rockford wants a store manager for school superintendent

Add comment October 28th, 2008

So, a consultant has analyzed the data from a community survey and decided Rockford’s creaking, under-performing school system requires a superintendent who is a collaborator, a communicator, who wants to stay here a long time..

Translation: Rockford wants a store manager.  They want ART JOHNSON.

How about a bold EDUCATOR who is dedicated to raising our abysmal student achievement, curbing truancy and working with other stakeholders, including the mayor, county board chairman, chamber of commerce?

 Oooooh, now that would be risky, especially to the troika of Hernandez, Katz and Hoffman, (not necessarily in that order)  who run the show — and I presume would like to continue running it.

Halloween Week: Now’s the time for the October Surprise

4 comments October 26th, 2008

We’re in the final phase of this election; Obama has a lead in the polls and a huge advantage in organization and money. The political talking heads on Sunday morning TV say the election is in the bag for O.

However, as I’ve said many times before, I don’t believe it. The last week — Halloween Week — is historically the time of the October Surprise, a last-minute, game-changing political bomb that cannot be easily rebutted in the time remaining.

It happened to George W. Bush in 2000, and very nearly changed the outcome of that election. As I recall, it was the final Thursday before the election. I had just finished covering Bush speaking at a huge and  enthusiastic GOP  rally at the College of DuPage.

(Hilarous Side Note: The rally MC was former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka. However, when then-Gov. George Ryan introduced him, he inexplicably called the man “Dick Butka.” If looks could kill, George wouldn’t have lived long enough to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison. Let’s just say Da Coach was not amused.)

 After the rally,  I made my way to my car and waited in a long line of traffic to get back on the road to home. I turned on trusty old WGN to learn that the October Surprise had been dropped by Democratic candidate Al Gore’s campaign.  When Bush was a young man he’d gotten a DUI in Kennebunkport — and never fessed up to it.

 The news sent the high flying  Bush campaign reeling and the polls began to drop. He squeaked by, just barely, with the help of the U.S. Supreme Court and Al Gore’s blunder — he should have demanded a recount of all Florida counties, not just a few.

Anyway, if the McCain camp has something really, really dirty on Obama, and the polls still show the Chicagoan in the lead, the maverick will unload the information on Wednesday or Thursday — and no later than Friday morning.

There’s also the possibility that an external event will occur that makes voters more likely to prefer McCain. That would probably be a Middle East event, such as Israel launching an air assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

I’m not predicting any of this will happen, just giving you some possible scenarios to watch out for as we wrap up the fight I’m calling the Thrilla From Wasilla.

Morrissey backs Tuite in 69th House race.

5 comments October 24th, 2008

Mayor Larry Morrissey of Rockford is an independent. However, he has endorsed Democrat Greg Tuite of Rockford in the 69th District House race. Tuite faces veteran incumbent Republican Ron Wait of Belvidere.

Here’s Hizzoner’s news release:

                                          MAYOR MORRISSEY ENDORSES

                     GREG TUITE FOR 69^TH DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE

 

     As Mayor of the City of Rockford, I see first hand that the representation we have in Springfield makes a

            huge difference.

            We deal down state with critical issues involving public safety, education, truancy, public employee

            pensions, and public investment in our roads and other public needs. We need a strong, proactive advocate for

            us in Springfield. Unfortunately, Rockford simply has not had that type of aggressive leadership from Ron Wait   in the 69th District.

            That’s why I am supporting Greg Tuite for State Representative. I have known Greg as an aggressive

            advocate for his clients for many years.  Greg understands Rockford’s critical needs as an urban community and

            will work hard to move our community’s agenda forward.

 

            Greg Tuite has served Rockford Township for nearly 8 years as a Township trustee. During that time

            he has earned a reputation for fiscal conservatism. We need that kind of fiscal discipline in Springfield.

            While I respect all of our legislative delegation, it’s time for change in Springfield. That’s why I am

            asking our citizens from the 69th District to consider a vote for Greg Tuite on Nov. 4.

 

        

Early voting, cell phone use and the decline of accurate polls

Add comment October 21st, 2008

There’s a flurry of early voting activity, I can report. I voted Monday at the Rockford Board of Elections, where at 4:45 p.m. I was surprised to find a flurry of activity — people voting early. Turns out that since early voting started Oct. 8, about 3,000 people have voted. I was the 183rd voter in the 9th ward to cast a ballot.

This early voting, which is becoming common throughout the nation, will render the polling business utterly inaccurate and obsolete, as the use of cell phones is already doing.

Pollsters don’t call cell phones, they call land lines. I don’t know about you, but I hardly ever use the phone that’s plastered to the wall in my house. I always tell people, “call my cell.”

None of the above; socialism and the “Box effect”

7 comments October 21st, 2008

My Thursday column contains three items, leading off with my belief that we should have a “none of the above” option in all elections to allow us to reject bad candidates and call for a new election with new candidates.

Here it is