It’s almost over ….

Add comment October 30th, 2008

 It’s almost over. The world-changing (add your hype here) election of 2008 is already underway, what with early-voting allowing people to go vote and turn off all the media coverage, campaign commercials, throw away the handouts.

Who will win? Polls are still showing Obama with a lead, although it’s been shrinking, as I told you it would.

The outcome, as I see it, depends on these factors:

* What the  undecided voters do on Nov. 4. If the undecideds, perhaps 8 percent of voters,  break for McCain — and the McCain campaign believes they will — it could be enough to put McCain in the White House. However, the Pew Center’s Andy Kohut says undecideds probably won’t save the day for McCain.

* What the “protest” vote does. Will Bob Barr on the right and Ralph Nader on the left, take significant numbers of votes away from McCain and Obama to make the difference in key states?

* Whose voters turn out. Will the huge Obama campaign, with thousands of paid staffers and tens of thousands more volunteers, get out its voters on election day in record numbers? Having had experience in a Chicago-based state campaign, (for Mike Bakalis in 1970, for college credit at the University of Illinois at Chicago) I recognize the Obama campaign. It’s Elections 101; identify your voters and make sure you get them to the polls. This is tedious, not glamorous at all, but it works. It’ll be interesting to see if the Obamacrats can make this kind of ground campaign work nationwide. If they can, he wins.

* Whose voters turn out , Part 2. McCain, who has not made a positive case for himself, has relied on a negative campaign based on raising the fear level about Obama. This is aided by surrogates through viral e-mails, by the all day, all night Mainstream Conservative Media, which owns AM radio, Fox News and the right wing portion of the blogosphere. McCain has no ground army of volunteers anywhere near Obama’s huge forces, but older Republicans are much more reliable voters than Democrats. We’ll see whether McCain-Palin can scrare ‘em to the polls in high enough numbers to beat Obama’s precinct army.

* Will the vaunted “youth vote” finally show up? Every four years they’ve talked a great game, but they don’t bother to turn up on Election Day.

On Election night, we’ll know whether we’re in for a long evening in front of the TV by what happens in key, eastern states like Virginia, the Carolinas, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Don’t hold your breath expecting Florida to come in early — they’re still learning to count. If Obama wins thekey,  early eastern states, especially Virginia and Pennsylvania, he’s probably got the election. If it’s a mixed bag, or very close, put on some coffee.

Tuite, Wait race in 69th Illinois House race: KaChing, KaChing, KaChing

1 comment October 30th, 2008

In the 69th Illinois House race, Democrat Greg Tuite is raking in the greenbacks. Here are the latest reports from the state Board of Elections. When you see a $10,000 donatin from I.P.A.C.E., that’s the political action committee of the Illinois Education Association, one of the two, big teachers unions in the state:

Here are some more Tuite contributions:

And here are more:

On Oct. 23, Tuite’s campaign reported these donations:

And here’s a whopper:

Ron Wait, the incumbent Republican facing Tuite, is really raking in the dough as Illinois Republicans try to save him. All these donations were reported to the state on Oct. 28:

And here are some more late breaking Wait donations:

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Christiansen cash register: Ring, ring, ring, ring.

1 comment October 30th, 2008

In the Winnebago County Board chairman’s race, Chairman Scott Christiansen, a Republican, is raking in the cash despite the fact that his Democratic opponent Paul Gorski, a County Board member, has still not even raised the $3,000 required to file a report with the state board of elections.

Here are late-breaking contributions to Christiansen’s  campaign, reported Oct. 28:

And these were reported on Oct. 24:

And on Oct. 21, these contributions were reported by Christiansen:

Late cash flowing into campaigns for Prorok, Bruscato

Add comment October 30th, 2008

Some big, last minute cash is flowing into Chuck Prorok’s campaign for Winnebago County state’s attorney. Campaign disclosure reports of contributions over $500 show these contributions made to the Republican on Oct. 27:

And this one from Oct. 24:

Meanwhile, late breaking contributions to Democratic candidate Joe Bruscato include:

and