No signs

Add comment January 3rd, 2008

Des Moines — It’s 1:45 p.m. on Thursday, caucus day in Iowa. It’s clear, with the temperature, I estimate, about 18. One thing I noticed was something I did not see — candidate signs. The only one I saw along I-80 from Davenport to Des Moines was for libertarian Repulblican Ron Paul. Hillary Clinton’s people are playing down Iowa’s importance, saying it’s just the beginning of the season, she doesn’t have to win here, and it’s a marathon, not a sprint to the Democratic nomination. ownplaying exepectations is smart, because if you win, you’ve done better than you told people you would, and if you don’t, you’re just meeting the low expectations you set for yourself. Make sense? In political land, it does.

Obama is staging a last minute round of rallies in the state, shouting, “Fired up? Ready to go?” to his crowds, who answer the questions with “Fired up! Ready to go.”

John Edwards is counting on his substantial network of friends and contacts around the state, dating from his strong, second place finish here in 2004.

Folks, it’s anybody’s guess which of these three candidates win the Democratic caucuses tonight. Back at you later.

chuck

Obama

Add comment January 2nd, 2008

Barack Obama benefits in Iowa because he’s the senator next door, here in Illinois, so Iowans, especially in the eastern portion of their state, know him well because there are shared Illinois/Iowa media markets in St. Louis, Quincy, the Quad Cities and Dubuque.

But Obama is counting on new caucus-goers to come out and stand in their man’s corner. That’s risky business. Ask Howard Dean. He was the front-runner going into Iowa’s 2004 caucuses, but his 3,000 student volunteers weren’t from Iowa and despite their door-to-door campaiging, they lacked the longtime relationships needed to bring people to the caucus. John Kerry had formed just that kind of relationship with Iowa’s Democratic party establishment, and he won the caucuses of ‘04.