Monday column - No the sky is not falling at the Rockford airport

March 31st, 2008 at 08:56am Thomas V. Bona

You don’t need to return to your seat. You don’t need need to put your tray table in an upright and locked position. You don’t need to reach for an oxygen mask.
There’s a little turbulence at Chicago Rockford International Airport, but the airplane isn’t going down.
Sure, United Airlines just announced that it’s cutting service to Denver in June. Yes, Allegiant Air is abandoning Fort Lauderdale then, too. No, I never heard of Southern Skyways before this year either.
But before you let loose with cries of “Why can’t Rockford keep airlines?” or “See, I told you it wouldn’t last,” look at the context.

Peoria also lost service to Fort Lauderdale. Fort Wayne, Ind., lost service to Fort Lauderdale and previously to Las Vegas. Three other cities are losing Allegiant service.
Atlantic City, N.J.; Meridian, Miss.; Islip, N.Y.; Bellingham, Wash.; and Fargo, N.D., are losing Delta service soon. United Airlines is grounding up to 4 percent of its fleet because of fuel costs.
Even ultra-low-cost carrier Skybus announced that it is slashing service from Gary, Ind., to Greensboro, N.C., in half. That came a week after service started.
What does this mean? It’s not just us.
Fuel prices have jumped 30 percent in the past three months and doubled in the past year.
And yet, RFD expects year-over-year growth in 2008. They’re still talking about around 300,000 passengers, despite the ups and downs.
If neither of those happen, then we can talk about a descent. But given the track record — steady growth despite a post-9/11 decline in the airline industry — let’s wait before hitting the panic button.
Several online commentators have criticized the airport’s plan to offer nondaily service to Detroit and Denver through a partnership with Southern Skyways. They think it’s silly for an airport to get into the airline business.
Benet Wilson, a blogger for Aviation Week, called it “a big gamble … this could be a measure that the airport — and the community — can ill afford.”
Of course it’s a gamble, and it could flop — although a flop would cost RFD up to $500,000, or a fifth of the subsidy United Airlines got for its two years here. Do you have a better idea?
If the legacy carriers thought they could make as much or more money flying between Rockford and their hubs, they’d be here. But they’re consolidating, putting planes in more profitable places — such as international routes — and grounding others. They’re large companies that are risk-averse in a very risky time.
RFD, it seems, has two choices: Sit back, watch the decline and hope it ends soon; or take risks, think outside the box and try for something else. Worst-case scenario, it seems, is they end up with the same fate as if they did nothing.
Best-case scenario: The airport manages to develop some new, profitable routes and continues its steady growth until the downturn ends. Then, maybe, someone like Frontier, Southwest, AirTran or Skybus may come calling.
Staff writer Thomas V. Bona may be contacted at 815-987-1343 or tbona@rrstar.com.

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