Skipping the fuel price musings today

3 comments July 31st, 2008

This morning’s prices at fuelgaugereport.com are already outdated, so I’m not going to bother with the trends. Suffice to say, prices jumped in Rockford today. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Today’s fuel price musings - oil spikes, so where do we go from here

Add comment July 30th, 2008

Oil prices jumped more than $4 a barrel today, after the Energy Department said gasoline supplies dropped by a surprising amount. The drop could mean Americans are driving more than thought, analysts said. Or it could just be a seasonal bump in demand. Goldman Sachs still says oil could hit $149 by the end of the year, but others said this was a bump before further declines.

Meanwhile, Phil Flynn is reappropriating Barry McGuire, and I can’t get the song out of my head.

Here are the prices, at least as of this morning. Who knows what tomorrow will bring. (Prices, as always, from AAAs fuelgaugereport.com.

Gasoline: Rockford dropped a cent to $3.80 a gallon, a 41-cent drop in two weeks and the lowest since May 10. We remain eighth in the state in gas prices. The Illinois average dropped more than a cent to just under $4.00, a 26-cent drop in  two weeks and the lowest since late May. The national average dropped more than a cent to $3.93 today and 19 cents in two weeks. Illinois has the 14th-highest gas prices in the nation (including the District of Columbia).

Diesel: Rockford increased a fraction of a cent, remaining at $4.66 a gallon, down 11 cents in the past month. We have the sixth-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average dropped a cent to $4.73. The national average dropped a cent to $4.71. Illinois has the 22nd-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).

No rush to Rushmore

4 comments July 30th, 2008

So, after stalling with 80 seats sold - only 61 percent - RFD canceled its day trip to Mount Rushmore. Too bad, people missed out on a great romantic getaway:

 (If was good enough for Cary and Eva…)

Would the trip have sold better if they used crop dusters?

In all seriousness, got some great comments from loyal readers on this subject, and wanted to respond to them with a full post…

Craig Knauss wrote:

Hopefully they will pick up some more people for Rushmore. Right now 61% of seats are sold. Please remember, it is not necessary to fill all seats on all flights. It’s great if you do, but I’ve almost never been on a 100% full flight, and I’ve been on at least 200 of them over the years. I think the airport should operate the flight as long as it doesn’t represent a big loss. And it doesn’t look good to just cancel flights when they aren’t full. A small one is tolerable when compared to the other successes.

Unfortunately, Craig, the rules have changed with high fuel prices. The airport is only operating these day trips to break even on full planes, not make money. Tickets for Rushmore were going at least $300 apiece so, that’s $15,000 in lost revenue. And there’s no windfall on those sold out trips to Niagara and Mackinac to back them up. The program is a marketing effort to keep RFD top of mind for consumers and airlines. If flights lose thousands of dollars, the program could end prematurely. So they’re making a calculated risk that it’s better to risk alienating some people with cancelations than to not offer the program at all, or to only go to “safe” destinations like Niagara. Tough times require creative solutions, and it appears to be working so far.

ANCJason wrote:

I’m really surprised that Rushmore isn’t selling better as well. It used to be that a 61% load would suffice, but those days are over. Mt. Rushmore would have been a great July 4th getaway, so if it doesn’t work out this time, maybe they will give it a chance next summer around that time.

I think you’ll see it tried again as an overnight trip yet this season, but that would be a great July 4 trip, you’re right. People are still getting used to the *concept* of day trips from RFD, so that’s part of it. I’m not overly surprised it didn’t work out, given the distance and price and relativley short window. But we’ll see what Bob and the gang have up their sleeves.

Today’s fuel price musings - Nope, oil still dropping

1 comment July 29th, 2008

Another day, another $2 saving at the ol’ oil field. Oil actually went down to a seven-week low of $120 a barrel before rebounding to $122.

Where does it go from here? Some conflicting expectations in this Bloomberg article:

• Galena-based energy analyst Jim Ritterbusch says $100 a barrel is possible by the end of summer or early fall because of reduced demand.
• OPEC President Chakib Khelil said oil prices are too high and need to come down. Of course he thinks that, because if demand falls too much, producers don’t make much money. It’ll be interesting to see if OPEC takes any action, like boosting production.
• Raymond Mazzeo, director of energy derivatives at Energy Merchant Intermarket Management LLC in New York said there’s a typical oil selloff of as much as 20 % this time of year, which would get oil down to about $118 a barrell. Much below that “would be very bearish.”

Here’s the real question. If gas prices drop back into our comfort zones, do we go back to our old driving habits, raising demand and putting us back where we were?

And now the prices you really care about (Numbers courtesy of AAA’s fuelgaugereport.com):

Gasoline: Rockford dropped more than two cents this morning to $3.81 a gallon, a 40-cent drop in two weeks and the lowest since May 11. We remain eighth in the state in gas prices. The Illinois average dropped more than two cents to $4.01, a 24-cent drop in  two weeks and the lowest since late May. The national average dropped almost two cents to $3.94 today and 17 cents in two weeks. Illinois has the 14th-highest gas prices in the nation (including the District of Columbia).

Diesel: Rockford increased a fraction of a cent, remaining at $4.66 a gallon, down 11 cents in the past month. We have the sixth-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average dropped more than a cent to $4.74. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.72. Illinois has the 22nd-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).

Mackinac Island trip sells out, Mount Rushmore stalling…

5 comments July 29th, 2008

Since last we talked, the final nine seats for Mackinac Island 2 were taken. That’s six sell outs in eight day trip offerings, or 786 outbound passengers in five weeks the airport wouldn’t have otherwise had.

However, the Aug.  7 trip to Mount Rushmore has stalled at 80 seats sold. Is it a bad sign that the online ticket program at southernskyways.com no longer lets you buy seats on that flight? Stay tuned…

Another Niagara Falls sell out, Mackinac Island tix going, going…

Add comment July 28th, 2008

With Sunday’s sold out flight to Indianapolis and an Aug. 10 Niagara Falls trip selling out over the weekend. RFD has sold out five day trips in eight attempts (including the failed trip to Bowling Green). That’s 655 outbound passengers in five weeks the airport wouldn’t have otherwise had. Here are the latest numbers on the remaining two trips:

• Aug. 7. to Mount Rushmore: 56  75 80/131 seats sold (as of 4 p.m.). Only six seats sold over the weekend. Probably not as many as airport officials hoped, and we’ll see how long they’ll keep trying on this one. If you’re interested, decide fast because it might not happen otherwise.
• Aug. 14 to Mackinac Island: 110 114 122/131 seats sold (as of 4 pm). People like fudge.

Today’s fuel price musings - Oil prices rebounding? Or not? I’m getting dizzy

Add comment July 28th, 2008

Oil prices increased to as much as $125 a barrel before coming back down a bit today. Now they’re fluctuating and sitting around $124, a net increase for the day. There are signs oil could keep falling - U.S. demand is way down and some other countries are indicating they’re seeing either a drop or a reason to cut subsidies. Venezuela is selling oil to its friends at around $100 a barrel.

There are signs it could go up, though. Energy trader Phi Flynn notes news of Iran ramping up its nuclear program and the ever-present problems in Nigeria as reasons for a possible bounce.

It seems, though, that gas prices could continue to fall. The much-reported Lundberg Survey  shows they’ve dropped 11.7 cents a gallon in two weeks and are at the lowest level since May 16.

AAA’s Geoff Sundstrom predicts prices could drop 25 cents by Labor Day.

“People say typically prices shoot up like a rocket, fall like a feather. But this time … it looks like it’s different,” Sundstrom said. “The retail sector is interested in bringing these prices down as fast as they can to stimulate business in their convenience stores.”

Our gas prices have actually fallen faster than the natural average (Numbers courtesy of AAA’s fuelgaugereport.com):

Gasoline: Rockford dropped almost two cents this morning to $3.83 a gallon, a 37-cent drop in 12 days and the lowest since May 13. We’re eighth in the state in gas prices, as some other metro areas have gotten the hint. The Illinois average dropped more than a cent to $4.04, a 22-cent drop in 11 days and the lowest since May 22. The national average dropped below $4 over the weekend, decreasing one cent to $3.96 today and 16 cents in 11 days. Illinois has the 14th-highest gas prices in the nation (including the District of Columbia).

Diesel: Rockford dropped more than two cents to $4.66 a gallon, down more than nine cents in the past month. We have the seventh-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average dropped almost two cents to $4.75, down 11 cents in 11 days.. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.74, down 11 cents in 11 days. Illinois has the 21st-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).

Indianapolis day trip sold out, others getting there

1 comment July 25th, 2008

A full plane is going to Indianapolis for the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. Sometime between 12:30 and 3:30 p.m., the last ticket was sold. Here’s an update on RFD’s other day trips:

• Aug. 7. to Mount Rushmore: 69/131 seats sold.
• Aug. 10 to Niagara Falls: 90/131 seats sold in like six hours.
• Aug. 14 to Mackinac Island: 40/131 seats sold in like six hours.

Any day trippers out there? Why are you taking advantage of these opportunities?

Better act fast on airport day trips

2 comments July 25th, 2008

In a fit of marketing genius, Chicago Rockford International Airport shows on its Web site how many seats are left on its upcoming day trips. Here’s the noon  12:30 p.m. tally:

• Sunday trip to Indianapolis: 130/131 seats sold, one left!
• Aug. 7. to Mount Rushmore: 69/131 seats sold. It’s not moving as fast as others, and it needs sales to continue strong for the trip to happen. But airport officials are confident that if this doesn’t work out, an overnight trip would. We’ll see how the first attempt goes.
• Aug. 10 to Niagara Falls: 56/131 64/131 seats sold in three hours. They’ve hit on something here. The first two Niagara day trips sold out in a day or less, so if you’re thinking of this one, don’t wait
• Aug. 14 to Mackinac Island: 25/131 31/131 seats sold in three hours. The previous trip also sold out in a day, so these may go fast too.

Are any other airports doing anything like this? Not that we can tell. First off, I don’t know of any other airport that effectively operates its own airline, so others don’t have this flexibility (they’d have to convince an airline to fly each trip). But this could catch on. If RFD averages six sold-out day trips a month, 10 months a year, that’s 7,800 outbound passengers a year the airport didn’t otherwise have. That’s almost an extra month of passengers in their totals.

Also, the airport isn’t making any money off these trips. The goal is to break even, to keep public attention on RFD, to give passengers a taste of the “hassle-free” experience with the hopes they’ll return for scheduled service. It also means RFD is charging the lowest possible price it could given fuel prices.

This is a fascinating and, so far, wildly successful idea. Let’s see how it grows and catches on elsewhere.

Today’s fuel price musings - Another day, another drop

2 comments July 25th, 2008

Oil down around $123. Some rumblings that it may have fallen too far, too fast, but the demand drop and associated increase in gasoline supplies are for real … coupled with the start of a rebound in the dollar, and the fundamentals have changed. So a drop was justified, but how much and for how much longer? I think it could keep going a bit or it could bounce back a bit, but my slightly, slightly, sliiiiightly educated guess is that it doesn’t go up a a lot for a while…

Fuel prices also down again (Numbers courtesy of AAA’s fuelgaugereport.com):

Gasoline: Rockford dropped three cents to $3.90 a gallon, a full 30-cent drop in just over a week. Our prices are also lower than they’ve been in about two months. We’re tied for tenth in the state in gas prices.  The Illinois average dropped more than two cents to $4.09, almost 16 cents below last week’s record. The national average dropped two cents to $4.01, 11 cents below last week’s record.  Illinois has the 13th-highest gas prices in the nation (including the District of Columbia).

Diesel: Rockford dropped more than a cent to $4.72, 14 cents below the record set in May. We have the sixth-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average dropped a cent to $4.79, seven cents down from last week’s record. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.77, down seven cents from last week’s record. Illinois has the 20th-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).