Guess we’re not getting those flights to Hungary

Add comment July 24th, 2008 02:08pm Thomas V. Bona

Malév Hungarian Airlines cutting its long-haul flights to the U.S., focusing on European service.

Granted, the idea of Malév flying to RFD hasn’t been seriously floated in like five years. It’s become a joke to RFD detractors, “Hey, how are those flights to Budapest coming?” but, hey, you gotta pursue all leads in this business. I’m sure there are a lot of “crazy” ideas floated by airports and airlines that are never made public.

Well, we can still hope for Ireland next year…

Raymond James analysis: Allegiant ‘actively managing for profitability’

Add comment July 24th, 2008 01:49pm Thomas V. Bona

Highlights from a favorable report that Allegiant passed our way from the financial giant:

• Allegiant’s first quarter profit of $0.13 earnings per share was a cent higher than Raymond James’ estimate. It saw a decline in earnings (from $0.51 a year ago), but remained profitable, unlike many of its competitors. Of course, the drop was due to a 58 percent increase in fuel costs.
• Allegiant dropped its average route length 7 percent over this time last year. “As Allegiant reduces long-haul flying in response to higher fuel prices, (average seat mile) growth will trail departure growth. … We view this near-term moderation in growth as active management of the business to maintain profitability (rare in the airline business) at higher fuel prices. … This should not be viewed as a lack of growth opportunities for Allegiant, in our view.”
• “We believe an increasing number of small-town America markets will be orphaned by legacy carriers as networks are restructured for higher fuel prices. Further, Allegiant’s reduced capacity growth, combined with reductions in competing capacity to leisure markets … should enhance Allegiant’s ability to raise fares. We believe Allegiant would be one of the first domestic carriers to accelerate growth should fuel continue to decline.”

Again, the drop in stage length isn’t a good sign for cities like Rockford that are more than 1,000 miles from Allegiant’s destinations. Maybe the part about Allegiant being one of the first to accelerate growth should fuel continue to decline would be good news for us. Or maybe they’ll accelerate growth elsewhere. Not sure. But good news for our largest carrier.

Mount Rushmore day trip selling reasonably well

1 comment July 24th, 2008 11:23am Thomas V. Bona

I say “reasonably” because RFD has sold out three other trips in a day each. So the airport has set the bar high.

But 51 seats in less than a day  63 seats in about a day is still pretty good, especially for the most expensive trip and longest trip yet. Bowling Green, Ky., the only day trip to fail, sold only 30 seats in several days.

Besides the presidential mountain, the day trip takes people near Badlands National Park, the Crazy Horse Memorial and the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. I’m told you could fly up there in the morning, rent a motorcycle, go to the rally and then go back home.

Anyone out there taking this  trip or thinking about it? I’d be interested in hearing what  you’re most interested in up there.

Ticket information and other stuff available here.

Today’s fuel price musings - looks like Bob Trojan’s not the only one walking

5 comments July 24th, 2008 09:25am Thomas V. Bona

Regular reader Bob Trojan has joked that he’ll walk so that he doesn’t have to fill his tank until gas prices bottom out. Well, according to government data,  U.S. demand has dropped 2.4 percent from a year ago. The phrase “demand destruction” is being thrown about by analysts.

There are other factors to: the strengthening dollar and the relative undestructiveness of Hurricane Dolly. But despite a slight overnight bump in oil prices, some people are saying oil could drop to $110 or, dare I say, even below $100.

We’ll see. For now, gas prices keep dropping as well (Numbers courtesy of AAA’s fuelgaugereport.com):

Gasoline: Rockford dropped more than two cents to $3.93 a gallon, a 27-cent drop from last week’s record. We’re still tenth in the state in gas prices. Only Springfield ($3.90) is below us. A friend from Chicagoland noted marked lower gas prices out here. Heck, we’re even lower than the lower-taxed Wisconsin. The Illinois average dropped more than two cents to $4.12, almost 14 cents below last week’s record. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.03, 9 cents below Thursday’s record.  Illinois has the 13th-highest gas prices in the nation (including the District of Columbia).

Diesel: Rockford dropped more than two cents to $4.73, 13 cents below the record set in May. We went up to sixth-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average dropped more than a cent to $4.80, almost six cents down from last week’s record. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.79, down almost six cents from last week’s record. Illinois is tied with the 20th-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).

Today’s fuel price musings - shhh, don’t wake oil prices

3 comments July 23rd, 2008 06:34pm Thomas V. Bona

Oil prices dropped again, to below $125 a barrell for the first time in six weeks. I see gas prices below $3.90 at places in Rockford. This is weird, let’s tiptoe through the update…

Numbers courtesy of AAA’s fuelgaugereport.com:

Gasoline: Rockford dropped more than a cent to $3.95 a gallon, a 25-cent drop from last week’s record. We’re still tenth in the state in gas prices. The state average dropped almost two cents to $4.14, about 11 cents below Thursday’s record. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.04, 7 cents below Thursday’s record.  Illinois has the 13th-highest gas prices in the nation (including the District of Columbia).

Diesel: Rockford rebounded a cent to $4.76, about 11 cents below the record set in May. We still have the seventh-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average dropped almost a cent to $4.82, down four cents from Thursday’s record. The national average dropped almost a cent to $4.80, down four cents from Thursday’s record. Illinois has the 20th-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).

Allegiant: We can’t take credit for low leisure airport fares

Add comment July 23rd, 2008 03:12pm Thomas V. Bona

Last post, I surmised that Allegiant might have something to do with the low fares at places like Las Vegas and Fort Lauderdale.

You’ll forgive my lack of intelligent analysis, I’m still relatively new to covering airlines.

Allegiant spokeswoman Tyri Squyres quickly explained, and in retrospect I shoulda known this:

“Leisure markets always have the lowest yields, because it’s almost all discretionary travel. By contrast, big business markets have some of the highest fares.
FLL and LAS are, of course, among the biggest leisure markets in the country. This long pre-dates Allegiant’s presence as a significant factor in Las Vegas (and of course we’ve been present in FLL for only a relatively short time and with quite a modest schedule).
Las Vegas, in fact, has long been notorious for its low fares.
The flip side of this is that it’s exactly the leisure markets that are being slammed by airline capacity cuts, and that makes sense too. When an airline is looking to cut capacity, it will do so first in the markets where its most marginal markets, and for most traditional airlines, that’s the big leisure markets like Las Vegas, Orlando, Hawaii, etc.”

Thanks, Tyri.

Average airfare up 4.4 percent this spring, slightly ahead of inflation

Add comment July 23rd, 2008 02:36pm Thomas V. Bona

The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics just released its quarterly look at airfare. Data is from first quarter 2008, so it doesn’t include the recent run-up in fares from April through now. Still, some interesting takeaways:

• Average domestic air fares in the first quarter of 2008 were up 4.4 percent from the first quarter of 2007 in the largest year-to-year increase since second quarter 2006. In the same time period, inflation rose 4 percent.
• However, average fares remained 4.6 percent below the January-to-March high set in 2001.
• Average fares increased 11.7 percent from the first quarter of 1995 to the first quarter of 2008, compared to a cumulative 41.0 percent inflation rate. So until recently, air fare wasn’t keeping up with inflation (hence the “era of cheap travel” as I’ve put it).
• The average domestic itinerary fare in the first quarter of 2008 of $332 was the highest average fare since the second quarter of 2006. The first-quarter 2008 average fare was up 10.1 percent from the post-9/11 first-quarter low of $301 in 2005. (Fares include taxes and fees.)
• Of the top 100 busiest airports, the highest average fares were in Cincinnati ($535) again. Madison, Wisc., was third at $455. That’s for round trips or one-ways with no return flight.
• Other airports in the area: O’Hare was 40th at $342, Milwaukee was 41st at $340 and Midway was 90th at $253.
• Airfare rose at Madison 8.4 percent in the past year and 13.4 percent since 2001. O’Hare airfare rose 10 percent in the past year, but dropped 16.7 percent since 2001, Milwaukee rose just 0.9 percent in the past year and dropped 11.1 percent since 2001 and Midway rose 13.3 percent in the past year and 12.3 percent since 2001. Midway had the fifth-highest increase in the past year.
• Atlantic City had the lowest airfare at $109, down a whopping 48.6 percent from the past year. Rockford favorite Las Vegas has the fifth-lowest at $241 (Fort Lauderdale is also pretty low, wonder if there’s an Allegiant Air effect? No, it’s just that leisure markets are generally cheaper.)

A lot to digest, I know, but interesting. Wonder how this will look when the next report comes out in three months.

Today’s fuel price musings - Oil down again

3 comments July 22nd, 2008 01:32pm Thomas V. Bona

Oil drops another $4 today, the lowest it’s been in over a month. Let’s not jinx it with analysis.

Numbers courtesy of AAA’s fuelgaugereport.com, today with rupee equivalents for our international readers:

Gasoline: Rockford dropped two cents to $3.97 (169 rupees) a gallon, an almost-24-cent drop from Wednesday’s record. We’re still tenth in the state in gas prices. Where are the calls that Rockford is paying too much? The state average dropped two cents to $4.16 (177 rupees), more than nine cents below Thursday’s record. The national average dropped more than a cent to $4.06 (173 rupees), almost 6 cents below Thursday’s record.  Illinois has the twelfth-highest gas prices in the nation.

Diesel: Rockford dropped almost two cents to under $4.75 (202 rupees), about 12 cents below the record set in May. We have the seventh-highest diesel prices in the state. The state average actually gained a fraction of a cent to $4.83 (206 rupees), down almost four cents from Thursday’s record. The national average dropped a cent to $4.81 (205 rupees), down almost four cents from Thursday’s record. Illinois has the 18th-highest prices in the country (including the District of Columbia).

Midwest Airlines cuts flights from Milwaukee to Fort Myers and Fort Lauderdale

Add comment July 21st, 2008 05:18pm Thomas V. Bona

As Cranky Flier alerted me, Midwest Airlines is cutting service from Milwaukee to various places. The most interesting ones to me are the cuts to its south Florida service.

It’s no secret that residents of this region are clamoring for flights from Rockford to Fort Myers. Who knows if and when it will happen, but any time the Chicagoland area loses flights there, it slightly opens the door for us.

As far as I can tell, here’s what remains in terms of direct flights to Fort Myers:

• American, daily flights from O’Hare
• United, daily flights from O’Hare
• Spirit, daily flights from O’Hare
• USA 3000, multiple times a week from O’Hare, depending on the time of year (their online schedule is very confusing)
• Southwest, 12 flights a week from Midway.
• AirTran, apparently seasonal service from Milwaukee and Midway, but doesn’t seem to be available now.

It’s a shame, Midwest is one of my favorite airlines, and I’ve only gotten to fly them once. Looks like that might be it…

Where do you want to day trip?

5 comments July 21st, 2008 02:32pm Thomas V. Bona

Chicago Rockford International Airport has been successful so far in its day trip program: Two sold-out trips to Niagara Falls, one nearly full plane to Indianapolis Sunday and now tentatively plans to go to Mackinac Island in August.

Officials say more possibilities are on the way, and hope to do a few trips a month. I know I’d love to do one if it ever works out, but I’m pretty tripped out this year. Maybe if something knocks me off my feet…

Where would you like to go? Here are some possibilities, either named by the airport or proposed by yours truly:

• Washington, D.C.
• Mt. Rushmore
• Mall of America
• Springfield/Branson, Mo.
• Bowling Green, Ky. (if at first you don’t succeed…)
• New York City (I can hope, no?)
• Niagara Falls, again
• (your idea here)

Also, would you want a one-day or overnight trip? Let me know by commenting below, or emailing tbona@rrstar.com.